Rising oil prices pushed inflation up to 4.8% at end-2021. We expect consumer price inflation to rise further in 2022, ending the year at 7.2%, owing to global supply-chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. In this context, prices of oil and food will remain elevated; Curaçao will be particularly affected, as it imports a significant share of its food. Although monetary policy mechanisms are weak, a tightening cycle this year will go some way towards keeping inflation in check. We then expect import prices to stabilise in 2023, helping to bring inflation down to 3.7% by year-end (the CBCS does not have an inflation target). Risks to our forecasts include further tax increases as part of efforts to shore up the public finances, as well as an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, as this could keep global commodity prices higher for longer. As much of Curaçao's consumer basket is composed of imports, the country will remain vulnerable to global price trends.