We forecast that the structurally large current-account deficit will widen to 24.5% of GDP in 2022 and then narrow to 22.3% of GDP in 2023, from an estimated 24.2% in 2021. Our forecast for this year is based on a rise in food and fuel prices amid ongoing supply-chain disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine; this will lift the import bill dramatically, driving the current-account deficit wider. The deficit should then narrow modestly in 2023 as commodity prices soften slightly and tourism growth accelerates. As at mid-March official reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at a comfortable Naf4.3bn (US$2.3bn, or 83% of GDP), with foreign-exchange reserves at Naf3bn.