Demand growth and rising oil prices pushed inflation up to 4.8% at end-2021. We expect consumer price inflation to rise further in the first half of this year on the back of global supply-chain disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will keep prices of oil (a chief import commodity for Curaçao) elevated. We then expect inflationary pressures to ease and inflation to end the year at the slightly lower level of 4.5%. Although monetary policy mechanisms are weak, a tightening cycle that we expect to begin this year will help to keep inflation in check. A stabilisation in import prices in 2023 will temper inflation, taking it to 3.7% by the end of the year. Risks to our forecasts include further tax increases as part of efforts to shore up the public finances. As much of Curaçao's consumer basket is composed of imports, the country will remain vulnerable to global price trends.