The structurally large current-account deficit will narrow over the forecast period, to 22.6% of GDP by 2023, from an estimated 23.8% in 2021. This narrowing will be largely driven by an expansion of the services surplus as tourism recovers. Nonetheless, the narrowing will be modest, as a forecast rise in oil prices will lift the import bill and partially offset moderate export growth. As a result, the trade deficit will narrow only slightly, averaging 33.1% of GDP in 2022-23 (from an estimated 33.3% of GDP in 2021). In March official reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at Naf4.3bn (US$2.3bn), of which foreign-exchange reserves totalled Naf3bn.