The next presidential election is due in September 2023 and the next parliamentary election in early 2024. In the previous presidential campaign, the absence of Mr Nasheed (who lived in exile in the UK) resulted in Mr Solih being chosen as the presidential candidate for an MDP-led coalition against the incumbent Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM). With the MDP struggling to present a united front, other contenders are likely to enter the presidential race. Veteran army officers, former ministers and current parliamentarians have shown interest in registering their respective political parties by enrolling the required 3,000 members, although none is expected to be a formidable contender; a former defence minister, Mohamed Nizam, and a former police chief, Abdulla Riaz, have already jointly registered the Maldives National Party with the intention of contesting the presidential election in 2023.

We expect Mr Solih and Mr Nasheed to be the two main candidates in the presidential election. Neither is likely to back down from participating in the primary election to determine the MDP's endorsement of a presidential candidate. Although Mr Nasheed has said that he will support Mr Solih should the latter win the MDP's candidature, he could seek to represent another party or establish his own party if the ideological rift between the two continues to widen. The ongoing five-year prison term imposed on Abdulla Yameen, the former president (2013-18) and leader of the main opposition PPM, will prevent him from contesting the 2023 election.