The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) dominates the People's Majlis (parliament), with 65 of the 87 seats. This has enabled the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, to pass the bulk of his administration's agenda. EIU's core forecast is that the MDP will serve out the remainder of its term, which expires in 2024, with a low risk of it being ousted prematurely.

In July 2021 Mohamed Nasheed-a former president (2008-12), the leader of the MDP and the current parliamentary speaker-announced a break in his political ties with Mr Solih. Although the two are thought to have a good personal relationship, they have often fallen out over matters of governance. Mr Nasheed cited differing views over issues of complacency and corruption for his decision. However, it is possible that mounting rumours concerning the selection of Mr Solih as the MDP's candidate for the presidential election in 2023 may also have motivated Mr Nasheed's decision.

Mr Nasheed's declaration is tantamount to an effective (if not official) split in the MDP, with Mr Solih currently commanding majority support in the party. However, the faction led by Mr Nasheed could secure the support of the country's opposition parties and independent members, giving him a large enough parliamentary majority to block government bills and resolutions.

Since surviving an assassination attempt in May 2021 (allegedly launched by a local Islamist group), Mr Nasheed has also been pushing for the government to take a harsher stance on religious extremism. His frustration with the MDP has grown over its inability to pass a hate-crime bill to address the issue. Conservative lawmakers view the proposed legislation as an attack on religion, while those with more neutral opinions are afraid of being targeted by extremist groups, as was Mr Nasheed, if they voice their support. The Taliban's coming to power in Afghanistan is likely to embolden local fringe groups in the Maldives, increasing the risk of social unrest in the country.

The tug-of-war between the two prominent figures in the MDP has created confusion in the ranks of the party, as well as the country's security forces. This could hinder their response in the face of a security threat to officials, locals and foreign tourists; however, we do not currently expect the impact of this to be significant.

Ahead of the presidential election in 2023, Mr Nasheed's pursuit of a national referendum to shift from presidential to parliamentary governance will dominate political discourse. Mr Solih seems to be in favour of supporting the parliamentary scheme after the election, should he return as president, when he believes that the country's tourism industry will have emerged from the shadow of Covid-19.