Country Report Curaçao 3rd Quarter 2021

Outlook for 2021-22: Policy trends

The new government's near-term policy focus will be the same as its predecessor's: to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to linger until global tourism returns to pre-pandemic levels. On a positive note, the Covid-19 infection rate on the island has stabilised over the past few months, to an average of 30 cases per day, and the vaccination campaign had covered 61% of the population with at least one dose and 55% of the population with both doses as at September 14th. Owing to continued vaccine supply from the Netherlands-the main provider of vaccines to the Dutch Caribbean-we expect the island to achieve game-changing levels of immunity (60-70% coverage with both doses) over the next couple of months and herd immunity (85% coverage with both doses) by the end of 2021. This should position the country well for the upcoming tourism season, which starts in November.

Other items on the new government's policy agenda include boosting production and exports by diversifying the economy, improving public-sector efficiency and tax collection, strengthening and expanding tourism, restarting operations at the Isla refinery and the Bullen Bay Oil Terminal, increasing alternative energy generation, developing a second port at Vaersenbaai Noord, and improving co-operation with the other Dutch Caribbean islands. However, Curaçao's ability to undertake recovery measures will depend on the level of Dutch financing that it manages to secure.

Dutch financing has been delayed owing to negotiations between the Pisas government and the Netherlands to revise the terms of a financing deal agreed under the previous administration, which envisaged the creation of the Caribisch Orgaan voor Hervorming en Ontwikkeling (COHO)-a fiscal over-sight body to support implementation of fiscal reforms on the island. The parties reached a revised agreement in early August, under which Curaçao will have more influence over fiscal reforms and will be responsible for creating and implementing fiscal and budgetary action plans. The old plan envisaged that these would be devised by the COHO. The compromise allows Mr Pisas to claim a political win, as he upheld his election pledges to strengthen Curaçao's autonomy and reduce its dependence on the Netherlands. The revised agree-ment also opens the door for the sixth tranche of Dutch financing, worth Naf168m (US$94m), to be disbursed over the remainder of the third quarter.

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