Global prices dominate inflationary trends in the Maldives, as most domestic demand is met through imports. Inflation is therefore susceptible to global price swings, as the pass-through is set by the rufiyaa:US dollar peg.

After deflation in 2020, consumer price inflation will shoot up in 2021, with prices rising by an average of 2.7% this year as domestic activity recovers and more tourists visit the islands in the second half of 2021. Stronger economic activity will keep average inflation above 2% in 2022 as tourism expenditure and private consumption edge closer to pre-pandemic levels. Higher global oil prices will also exert an upward influence on consumer prices in 2021-22.