The next presidential election is due in September 2023 and the next parliamentary election in early 2024. During the previous polls the absence of Mr Nasheed (who lived in exile in the UK) resulted in Mr Solih being chosen as the presidential candidate for an MDP-led coalition against the then ruling Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM). With the MDP struggling to present a united front, other contenders are likely to enter the presidential race in the run-up to the election. Veteran army officers, former ministers and current parliamentarians have shown interest in registering their respective political parties by enrolling the required 3,000 members, although none are expected to be formidable contenders.

We expect Mr Solih and Mr Nasheed to be the two main candidates to contest the presidential election. Neither of them is likely to back down from participating in the MDP's primary election to determine the presidential candidate endorsed by the party. Although Mr Nasheed has said that he will support Mr Solih should he win the MDP's candidature, he could seek candidature from another party or establish his own party if the ideological rift between the two continues to widen. The ongoing five-year prison term of Abdulla Yameen, the former president (2013-2018) and leader of the main opposition PPM, will prevent him from contesting the 2023 election.