The tourism sector, along with the services ecosystem, is the main driver of economic growth in the Maldives. This historically lopsided reliance on tourism earnings has taken a heavy toll on the local economy in the wake of the pandemic. While tourism has posted a delayed but sustained recovery since the opening of borders in mid-July 2020, we expect the government to continue with its initiatives to attract more tourists, such as international marketing roadshows and loyalty programmes. The government will concentrate on supporting the country's economic recovery in 2021-22.

Achieving mass immunisation will also be accorded a high priority this year. The government recently announced plans to launch a vaccination awareness programme, which will help to reduce vaccine hesitancy among the population. The government has also hinted at securing a vaccine-supply arrangement with AstraZeneca Singapore, although it has revealed neither the number of doses nor when they will arrive. The country is listed as a recipient under the Covid-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility (led by the World Health Organisation to ensure equitable access to vaccines) and is also likely to receive vaccines from India. Nevertheless, we do not expect mass vaccination (which we have set at 60% of the population) to be achieved before mid-2022.

Tackling corruption and the human rights abuses that spread under the previous administration will probably go on the back burner in 2021-22. Mr Solih's administration will seek to reform the judiciary to improve its effectiveness, but we believe that change will be slow, particularly on the issue of corruption.