The most recent parliamentary election was held in April 2019, when Mr Solih's MDP, which leads the governing coalition, secured a sweeping majority. The next parliamentary election is due in early 2024.

The latest presidential election was held in September 2018, when Mr Solih defeated Mr Yameen. Presidential elections follow a two-round system. However, as Mr Solih and Mr Yameen were the only candidates in the 2018 election, the contest was decided by a simple one-round majority vote. The next presidential election is due in September 2023.

The absence of the exiled Mr Nasheed during the 2018 poll resulted in the elevation of Mr Solih as the presidential candidate for an MDP-led coalition against the then-ruling PPM. We expect Mr Solih to seek re-election for a second term in 2023. However, his candidacy is likely to be challenged by Mr Nasheed, who would also be keen to return to power for a second time.