The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the government, led by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), to serve out a full term, which will expire in 2023. The MDP dominates the People's Majlis (parliament), with 65 of the 87 seats, while the main opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) has just six. This has enabled the government to push through the bulk of its policy agenda. However, the MDP's rise to dominance in the 2019 legislative election came at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP), the country's third-largest party and a key member of the ruling coalition, which has been reduced to a relatively insignificant five seats. While The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that this has put the future of the coalition in jeopardy, we do not consider it to be a major threat to political stability. A break-up of the coalition would be unlikely to have any significant impact on the stability of the MDP-led government, given the JP's small legislative presence. Although Mr Solih has said that it will remain in place, our view is that the coalition could fall apart during our forecast period (2021-22). The JP is more likely to join the PPM in opposition than accept a diminished role in the coalition with the MDP. The ruling party would also prefer to see the JP leave the government rather than have to make concessions to it under the coalition agreement.

The biggest threat to political stability stems from the danger of factional splits within the MDP. Mr Solih is thought to have a good relationship with Mohamed Nasheed, a former president (2008-12) and the current parliamentary speaker, who returned to the country from exile in November 2018. However, they have often fallen out over government affairs and other operational issues. While we do not expect tensions to spiral out of control, we continue to believe that Mr Nasheed will aim to secure a more central role in the government and, consequently, the risk of political in-fighting within the MDP remains high.

Our core forecast remains that the MDP's firm control over the executive and legislature will aid its policy effectiveness during the forecast period. Mr Solih is committed to socioeconomic development and will want to accord a high priority to it during his term of office. In October 2019 he unveiled the Strategic Action Plan 2019-23, which will serve as a guide for his government's policy-making as it seeks to achieve its development goals. Despite Mr Solih's strong will to pursue reform measures, his ability to implement them will remain constrained by the presence of influential opposition figures, as well as the more urgent task of achieving mass immunisation against the coronavirus (Covid-19). That said, the MDP's political position will receive a boost from the imprisonment of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom-Mr Solih's predecessor and one of his most formidable opponents, who is currently serving a five-year jail sentence after being convicted in a money-laundering case in November 2019.