The structurally large current-account deficit will narrow over the 2021-22 forecast period, to an average 19.2% of GDP, after peaking at an estimated 23.8% of GDP in 2020. The estimated widening of the deficit in 2020 is mainly owing to a sharp downturn in the tourism sector. This will be partly offset by a decline in the import bill as domestic demand for imports falls and oil prices drop amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil prices will rise in 2021, lifting the import bill and partly offsetting moderate export growth. Overall, the current-account deficit will narrow to 20.8% of GDP in 2021. In June international reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at Naf2.7bn (US$1.5bn), providing 4.7 months of import cover, down from more than five months in 2017. However, Curaçao will maintain good access to bilateral and multilateral loans owing to its relationship with the Dutch government, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.