The tourism sector, along with the services ecosystem, is the main driver of economic growth in the Maldives. This historically lopsided reliance on tourism earnings has taken a heavy toll on the local economy in the wake of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. The Maldivian government closed the country's borders from late March to mid-July 2020 in order to control the spread of the virus, and announced a fiscal-stimulus package worth Rf2.5bn (US$170m) to make up for the slump in tourism. We expect the government to accord a high priority to combating the economic and health threats posed by the coronavirus, and reviving tourism.

As the health crisis ebbs in 2021-22, Mr Solih's administration will tackle the corruption and human-rights abuses that spread under the previous administration. He will also seek to reform the judiciary, to improve its professionalism, and to reduce its tendency to intervene in the county's political struggles. Nevertheless, we believe that the speed and scale of change may disappoint, particularly on the issue of corruption.