The government is led by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), who was elected to the presidency in November 2018. This completed a transfer of power that was notably smooth, given the country's volatile political history. Democratic institutions and accountability suffered under the long and autocratic presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, which lasted from 1978 to 2008. The subsequent presidency of the MDP's Mohamed Nasheed was ended prematurely in 2012 amid protests, with Mr Nasheed alleging that he was forced from office at gunpoint. The tenure of Mr Solih's predecessor, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), saw further instability. Mr Yameen (who is also the half-brother of Mr Gayoom) cracked down on his political opponents and clashed with other senior politicians, most notably his vice-president, Ahmed Adeeb, who was removed through a no-confidence motion during a state of emergency in 2015.

Following the legislative election in April 2019, Mr Solih's MDP emerged as the single largest party in the People's Majlis (the legislature), unseating the PPM, the main opposition party, which now has a greatly reduced representation; the MDP holds 65 seats in the 87-seat legislature, while the PPM has just six. The ruling party's huge majority in the Majlis gives the government a free hand to push through its policy agenda.

However, the rise of the MDP in parliament has also come at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP), the country's third-largest party and a key member of the ruling coalition, which has now been reduced to a relatively insignificant five seats. This puts the future of the coalition in jeopardy. Although Mr Solih has said that it will remain in place, The Economist Intelligence Unit's core expectation is that the coalition will fall apart in 2021-22. Regardless, this will not have a significant impact on the stability of the MDP-led government. The JP is more likely to join hands with the PPM in opposition than accept a diminished role in the coalition with the MDP. The MDP would also prefer to see the JP leave the government than have to make concessions to it under the coalition agreement.

The biggest threat to political stability in the Maldives stems from the danger of factional splits within the ruling party. The president is thought to have a good relationship with Mr Nasheed, a former president (2008-12) and the current speaker of the People's Majlis, who returned to the country from exile in November 2018. However, they have recently fallen into a disagreement over the future of a member of the cabinet. Mr Nasheed has raised allegations of corruption against the Ministries of Finance and Economic Development over the implementation of the National Single Window Project. While we do not expect the current escalation of tensions to spiral out of control, we continue to believe that Mr Nasheed will aim to secure a more central role in the government and, consequently, the risk of political infighting within the MDP remains high.

The recent bickering notwithstanding, our core forecast remains that the MDP's firm control over the executive and legislature will aid its policy effectiveness during the forecast period. Mr Solih is committed to socioeconomic development and reforms and will continue to accord a high priority to these areas during his term of office. In October 2019 he unveiled the Strategic Action Plan 2019-23, which will serve as a guide to his government's policymaking as it seeks to achieve its development goals. Despite Mr Solih's strong will to pursue reform measures, his ability to implement them will remain constrained by the presence of influential opposition figures. That said, the imprisonment of Mr Yameen-one of Mr Solih's most formidable opponents, who is currently serving a five-year jail sentence after being convicted in a money-laundering case in November 2019, will boost the MDP's political position.