The current-account deficit will narrow in 2020-21, but will stay above 20% of GDP. This assumes a recovery in services earnings on the back of a rise in tourist arrivals (and in higher-paying tourists). Continued modest growth in investment will boost demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit, although structurally wide (historically above 30% of GDP), will narrow slightly in 2020 as a share of GDP, given weak import demand and softer oil prices.

In 2021 oil prices will rise, swelling the import bill and offsetting moderate export growth. These trends will narrow the current-account deficit from an estimated 26.3% of GDP in 2019 to 20.1% of GDP in 2021. In January 2020 international reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten provided four months of import cover, down from more than five months in 2017. However, Curaçao will maintain good access to bilateral and multilateral loans, owing to its relationship with the Netherlands government, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.