The rufiyaa is pegged to the US dollar. The midpoint of the exchange rate is Rf12.85:US$1, and the rate is permitted to fluctuate within a band of 20% either side of this level. In recent years the currency has consistently tested the weak edge of the exchange-rate band. Gross international reserves, at US$612m at end-August 2019, are relatively low compared with the monetary base (around Rf10.6bn, or US$689m, at end-August, based on MMA data). This renders the peg relatively vulnerable, particularly given the scale of the country's other external liabilities. There is a significant risk that the govern-ment could look to revise the peg in 2020, with a view to weakening the currency. However, a substantial depreciation does not form part of our core forecast.