Curaçao has been self-governing (except in matters of defence and judicial policy) since October 2010. The Netherlands remains responsible for defence, which will strain the relationship between the two countries in the short term, as Curaçao has increased demands for security assistance, owing to concerns about the large inflow of undocumented Venezuelan migrants. The Kingdom Council of the Netherlands (the Netherlands ministerial executive, whose responsibilities include former Dutch colonies) will continue to provide technical support and fiscal oversight.

The island's foreign policy will continue to be directed towards achieving a larger role for Curaçao in regional affairs, including developing social and cultural ties with other former Netherlands colonies. The governments of Curaçao and Aruba are likely to join the Sint Maarten Constitutional Court within the forecast period, a development that would bolster regional co-operation. Moreover, we expect Curaçao and Sint Maarten to become associate members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) during 2019-20.

The predominance of the Venezuelan crisis will strain relations with Venezuela, while prompting closer ties with the US. Amid a concerted international effort to oust the Venezuelan regime, the government has secured a sanctions waiver for the island's Isla oil refinery (operated by Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA) and agreed to act as a hub for US and Dutch humanitarian aid on its way to Venezuela (in the event that the distressed country allows it).