The political situation will be volatile during 2019-20. The coalition government-which consists of the main Partido Antiá Restrukturá (PAR) and two minority partners, the Partido MAN (MAN) and the Partido Inovashon Nashonal-has only a very slim parliamentary majority, holding 12 seats in the 21-seat parliament. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the coalition will serve out the remainder of its term in office, which runs until 2021, but there is a high risk of an early election. The government, led by the prime minister, the PAR's Eugene Rhuggenaath, has a stronger mandate than its predecessor (which collapsed when a party holding just two seats withdrew). Nevertheless, the ruling coalition faces a fragmented political environment. In particular, differences between the PAR and MAN over the island's role in a prolonged Venezuelan crisis may be aggravated, raising the risk of political instability.

The government will find it difficult to avoid the political volatility that has affected the island in recent years. The political establishment was rocked by major corruption allegations, including accusations of financial malpractice levelled at the now-suspended president of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS, the Curaçao and Sint Maarten joint central bank), Emsley Tromp, who was initially replaced by two acting directors in November 2017. Moreover, a former prime minister (2010-12) and founder of the largest opposition party, the pro-independence Movementu Futuro Korsou (MFK, five seats), Gerrit Schotte, continues to exert a level of political influence as leader of the MFK. This is despite being convicted of bribery charges and sentenced to three years in jail and a five-year ban from public office in 2016.

On top of political fragmentation, stability will suffer from rising migration inflows from Venezuela. In early 2019 there were an estimated 15,000 undocumented Venezuelans (equivalent to nearly 10% of the island's population) which will burden the already-strained public finances and heighten the risk of social tension. In addition, the government's efforts to address weak growth and a feeble fiscal stance may engender social unrest. Changes to public pension entitlements, and the education and healthcare systems could, along with tax reform, easily be derailed by special-interest groups. These factors will contribute to overall political instability and complicate governance.