Curaçao has been self-governing (except in matters of defence and judicial policy) since October 2010. The Netherlands remains responsible for defence, which will strain the relationship between the two countries in the short term, as Curaçao has increased demands for security assistance, owing to concerns about the large inflow of undocumented Venezuelan migrants. The Kingdom Council of the Netherlands (the Netherlands ministerial executive, whose responsibilities include former Dutch colonies) will continue to provide technical support and fiscal oversight.

The island's foreign policy will continue to be directed towards achieving a larger role for Curaçao in regional affairs, including developing social and cultural ties with other former Netherlands colonies. The governments of Curaçao and Aruba are likely to join the Sint Maarten Constitutional Court within the forecast period, a development that would bolster regional co-operation. Moreover, we expect Curaçao and Sint Maarten to become associate members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) during 2019-20.

The government's relationship with Venezuela will continue to deteriorate as the economic and political crisis in Venezuela persists. In February the Netherlands established a humanitarian aid hub in Curaçao, prompting Venezuela, which periodically restricts travel to close its sea border with Curaçao. Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, has a lease on the island's Isla oil refinery, but the economic collapse in Venezuela has caused underinvestment in the facility, which has barely been operational in recent months.