The political situation will remain volatile during 2019-20. The coalition government-which consists of the main Partido Antiá Restrukturá (PAR) and two minority partners, the Partido MAN (MAN) and the Partido Inovashon Nashonal-has only a very slim parliamentary majority, holding 12 seats in the 21-seat parliament. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the coalition will serve out the remainder of its term in office, which runs until 2021, but there is a high risk of an early election. The government, led by the prime minister, the PAR's Eugene Rhuggenaath, has a stronger mandate than its predecessor (which collapsed when a party holding just two seats withdrew). Nevertheless, the ruling coalition faces a fragmented political environment. A prolonged Venezuelan crisis, for example, would cause friction between the PAR and MAN, raising the risk of instability.

The government will find it difficult to avoid the political volatility that has affected the island in recent years. The political establishment has been rocked by major corruption allegations, including accusations of financial malpractice levelled at the now-suspended president of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS, the Curaçao and Sint Maarten joint central bank), Emsley Tromp, who was initially replaced by two acting directors in November 2017.

Despite having been convicted of bribery charges and sentenced to three years in jail and a five-year ban from public office in 2016, the former prime minister, Gerrit Schotte (2010-12), of the Movementu Futuro Korsou (MFK), was allowed to run in the 2016 and 2017 elections. His party won 16% of the vote in 2016 and 19.9% of the vote in 2017, and gained a seat in parliament. In January Mr Schotte was ordered to resign as a member of parliament and serve out a three-year prison sentence after being convicted by the Court of First Instance on corruption charges. This development has hurt the pro-independence MFK's political prospects.

On top of political fragmentation, stability will suffer from rising migration inflows from Venezuela. In early 2019 there were an estimated 15,000 undocumented Venezuelans (equivalent to nearly 10% of the island's population) which will burden the already-strained public finances and heighten the risk of social tension. Moreover, the government will struggle in its effort to address weak growth and implement unpopular economic reforms. Changes to public pension entitlements, and the education and healthcare systems could, along with tax reform, easily be derailed by special-interest groups. These factors will contribute to overall political instability and complicate governance.