The new government's difficult relationship with China is likely to lead to a significant slowdown in export growth in 2019, as Chinese tourist arrivals stagnate or decline. Fiscal retrenchment will also exert a negative influence on economic growth, with public consumption growth slowing in both 2019 and 2020. Efforts to scale down the ongoing infrastructure projects funded by Chinese loans acquired during Mr Yameen's presidency will also constrain economic growth during the forecast period, dampening investment. We expect these factors to result in a significant deceleration in economic expansion on average in 2019-20. Nevertheless, tourist arrivals from India and other markets (mainly European countries) will provide support for real GDP growth. Overall, we expect economic growth to average 3.7% a year in 2019-20.