The country's new president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), assumed office in November 2018. This completed a transfer of power that was surprisingly smooth, given the country's recent volatile political history. Democratic institutions and accountability suffered under the long and autocratic presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, which lasted for three decades between 1978 and 2008. The subsequent presidency of the MDP's Mohamed Nasheed was prematurely ended in 2012 amid protests, with Mr Nasheed alleging that he was forced from office at gunpoint. The tenure of the most recent president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), saw further instability. Mr Yameen (who is also the half-brother of Mr Gayoom) cracked down on his political opponents and clashed with other senior politicians, most notably his vice-president, Ahmed Adeeb, who was removed through a no-confidence motion during a state of emergency in 2015.

Mr Yameen appears to have accepted the results of the September 2018 presidential election, which gave a clear mandate to Mr Solih, despite the incumbent having used various tactics to tilt the vote in his favour. Mr Solih's MDP leads the governing coalition that commands a majority in the People's Majlis (the legislature), with 46 out of the 85 seats. Nevertheless, the country's recent history and impending parliamentary elections in April 2019 suggest that the prospect of further political instability in 2019-20 will remain high. The danger of short-term instability will be particularly elevated following the 2019 polls as the newly elected members of the legislature work out coalition arrangements.

During the forecast period, the risk remains that Mr Yameen or Mr Gayoom could seek to oust the MDP president, using their support networks in the security forces or the courts. (Mr Gayoom was arrested during Mr Yameen's time in office on charges of trying to overthrow the administration; he was freed on bail after Mr Solih won the presidential election.) The country's economic position became more fragile during Mr Yameen's presidency. Efforts by the new administration to put it back on a more sustainable track could create the sort of social conditions conducive to protests that would provide an excuse for an intervention seeking to remove the government.

Although the MDP's control of the presidency and its dominance in the legislature should aid political effectiveness, Mr Solih may face challenges from within the MDP. The president is thought to have a good relationship with Mr Nasheed, who returned to the Maldives from exile in November 2018. However, the former president is unlikely to be comfortable accepting a secondary role in the government, and the risk of clashes between Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih will be high. Another potential rival is the speaker of the legislature, Qasim Ibrahim. Mr Ibrahim, a tourism magnate and former presidential candidate, heads the Jumhooree Party (JP), which has the highest number of seats in the legislature. His current support for Mr Solih is likely to prove fragile as the government seeks to tackle the country's economic woes.

Outside of the political sphere, there is some threat that Islamic militancy could lead to violence in the Maldives. A strict strain of Wahhabism is followed by many in the country, and dozens of residents are thought to have joined militant Islamic groups overseas in the last 20 years. There have been a number of incidents that have blended political and religious-based violence in recent years, including the killing of a liberal blogger, Yameen Rasheed, in 2017. The islands' many tourist resorts could prove to be vulnerable targets for Islamic terrorists if the security forces are unable to contain these threats at an early stage.