The current-account deficit narrowed in the first nine months of 2014, and we estimate the full-year deficit at the equivalent of 30.9% of GDP, down from 37.1% in 2013. The improvement has been driven by an upturn in services receipts, largely owing to a recovery in tourism demand, and by a fall in the merchandise trade deficit. The latter trend is the result of a decline in trade-related oil refinery activities, and also of weak demand for consumer imports, which is outstripping a decline in export earnings. We expect these trends to continue in 2015. An end to the recession and modest investment growth will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will still shrink as average oil import costs stay below their 2014 levels. We expect a further widening of the surplus on the services account as tourism growth continues to recover, but this will be partially offset by growth in the deficits on the income and current transfers accounts. The overall impact of these trends is expected to result in a modest further decline in the current-account deficit, to 26.3% of GDP, in 2015. Inward direct investment is showing signs of an upturn in response to recovering tourism, but inflows will remain subdued until government reform efforts improve competitiveness. Curaçao has access to bilateral and multilateral loans, and we expect this to remain the case, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis.