After a marked upswing in inflationary pressures in mid-2014, consumer price inflation has weakened gradually since, reaching 1.4% in April 2015. Price pressures will remain contained in 2015 as lower average fuel, transport and communications costs continue to offset food price increases. Fiscal restraints and tax rises will also continue to dampen both public spending and growth in private consumption demand in the remainder of 2015. The extremely weak nature of the economic recovery will prevent a marked upturn in consumer demand, and, combined with lower average international oil prices, this will result in a year-end inflation rate of 1.3%. Risks to this forecast stem from a possible sharp rebound in oil prices (which would quickly feed through to upward price pressures) and the risk of a sudden hiatus in Venezuelan tourism demand, but this does not form part of our central forecast scenario.