Country Report Curaçao 2nd Quarter 2015

Outlook for 2015-16: Policy trends

Recent fiscal consolidation efforts to erase an US$85.5m deficit generated under Mr Schotte's administration (2010-12) and compensate for a fall in tax revenue during the recession made progress in 2014, resulting in a modest officially estimated surplus in the year. Weak economic growth and a commitment to reducing accrued fiscal deficits will limit the adoption of expansionary fiscal policies, but some public investment will see progress in the remainder of 2015. Fiscal consolidation and the imposition of a cap on debt levels will prevent a build-up of overseas debt. The coalition government is expected to advance tax reforms to increase revenue, but its slender parliamentary majority means that progress will be subject to setbacks. Other proposed policy initiatives include the raising of the retirement age from 60 to 65, and the introduction of efficiency improvements and cost savings to reduce the public healthcare bill. Reform of the education system and welfare provision will also receive attention to ensure long-term fiscal stability. However, these measures are unpopular, and resistance to them will continue to test the governing coalition's commitment to reform. The opening of state utilities to competition and private-sector investment will also advance only slowly. A policy of encouraging alternative, sustainable electricity generation and energy conservation in order to reduce dependence on imported fuel oil is making progress but will be hindered if the weakness of international oil prices proves sustained, as this would undermine the competitiveness of alternative energy sources and the adoption of energy-saving measures unless further fiscal concessions were offered.

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