Outlook for 2015-16

• The prime minister, Ivar Asjes of the Pueblo Soberano (PS), leads a coalition government with a weak, one-seat majority. Risks to political stability will grow in the run-up to an election in 2016, which may be brought forward.
• Progress on fiscal consolidation and tackling corruption will be hampered by the government's slim majority. Tougher counter-narcotics action in Central America poses a risk to Curaçao's security from diverted drug flows.
• The Kingdom Council of the Netherlands will continue to provide fiscal supervision to Curaçao. Progress towards achieving a balanced budget will continue in 2015-16.
• Economic growth will gain traction in 2015, following a lengthy recession since 2009. However, growth will be weak, hindered by retrenchment in public spending and tax increases that will blunt consumer demand.
• A fragile economic recovery and deflationary pressures emanating from lower average oil prices will keep inflation at bay in 2015, with forecast average inflation of 1% and a year-end rate of 1.3%.
• The current-account deficit will continue to narrow in 2015. Recovering tourism demand will push up services receipts, while the merchandise trade deficit will narrow owing to cheaper oil imports.

Review

• The coalition government has announced plans to adopt a code of conduct for civil servants as part of an internal integrity process, but the reform is unlikely to pass, given the coalition's small legislative majority.
• Headline consumer price inflation stood at 1.4% in April, up from 1.3% in March but below the end-2014 rate of 1.6%, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics.
• Chinese investors visited Curaçao in mid-May to explore the possibility of providing much-needed capital to modernise the Isla oil refinery, which is currently leased by Venezuela.