The current-account deficit, estimated at 17.6% of GDP in 2017, is forecast to narrow in 2018-19, owing largely to a recovery in services earnings on the back of an increase in arrivals and higher-paying tourists-in January-February tourism receipts rose by 2% year-on-year. Continued modest growth in investment and the economy as a whole will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will continue to narrow slightly as a share of GDP as oil import costs remain contained. Overall, these trends will narrow the current-account deficit to 12.8% of GDP by 2019.

Inward foreign direct investment (FDI), which had stabilised in response to recovering tourism (the FDI figure in 2015 of US$146.4m was the highest since 2008), has slipped more recently, to US$133.1m in 2016; we expect this trend to reverse in 2018 on the back of post-hurricane reconstruction works. However, more significant inflows will not be forth-coming until government reform efforts improve competitiveness.

Curaçao will maintain access to bilateral and multilateral loans, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. International reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at around US$1.3bn at the end of March, providing around five months of import cover.