Consumer prices will rise modestly in 2018-19, owing to higher food and fuel prices. However, economic weakness will prevent a marked upturn in consumer demand in and, combined with still-modest international oil prices, this will result in average inflation of 2% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. Prices rose in 2017, after a long deflationary period that started in the first quarter of 2015 and ended in the fourth quarter of 2016, owing to elevated food and fuel costs. Price pressures will stabilise in the medium term as fuel, transport and communications costs return to normal; food price increases will support modest inflation.