The current-account deficit, estimated at 15.8% of GDP in 2017, is forecast to narrow in 2018, owing to a rise in oil prices and an increase in cruise tourism. Continued modest growth in investment and the economy as a whole will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will continue to shrink slightly as a share of GDP as oil import costs remain contained. We expect the surplus on the services account to rise as tourism recovers in 2018-19. Overall, these trends are expected to result in a modest narrowing of the current-account deficit to an average of 12.4% of GDP in 2018-19. Inward foreign direct investment (FDI), which had stabilised in recent years in response to recovering tourism (the FDI figure in 2015 of US$146.4m was the highest tally since 2008) has begun to slip slightly, dropping to US$133.1m in 2016. More significant inflows will have to wait until government reform efforts improve competitiveness. Curaçao has access to bilateral and multilateral loans, and we expect this to remain the case, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. International reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at US$1.4bn as at November 16th 2017 (down from US$1.5bn at end-2016), providing just under than five months of import cover.