The current-account deficit widened to an estimated 18% of GDP in 2016 and we expect only modest narrowing in the short run. The trade deficit decreased in 2016 as a result of a decline in trade-related oil refinery activities (which have large import components) and weak demand for consumer imports. Continued modest growth in investment and the economy as a whole will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will continue to shrink slightly as a share of GDP as oil import costs remain contained. We expect a widening of the surplus on the services account as tourism growth continues to recover, but this will be partly offset by growth in the deficits on the income and current transfers accounts. Overall, these trends are expected to result in a modest narrowing of the current-account deficit to an average of 17.6% of GDP in 2017-18. Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) has been more stable in response to recovering tourism (the FDI figure of US$146.4m in 2015 was the highest tally since 2008, although this slipped slightly to US$133.1m in 2016), but more significant inflows will have to wait until government reform efforts improve competitiveness. Curaçao has access to bilateral and multilateral loans, and we expect this to remain the case, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. International reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at US$1.5bn at end-2016 (up from US$1.3bn at end-2015), providing just over 13 months of import cover.