Following a deflationary trend in May-September 2016, consumer prices began to rebound, rising by 0.6% in November (the latest available data). Price pressures will remain weak in the short term as relatively low fuel, transport and communications costs continue to offset food price increases. The extremely weak nature of the economic recovery will prevent a marked upturn in consumer demand in 2017-18 and, combined with still-modest international oil prices, this will result in average inflation of 1.8% and 2.1% respectively. Risks to this forecast stem from a possible sharper rebound in oil prices (which would quickly feed through to upward price pressures), but this is not our baseline scenario.