The political scene is in turmoil following the quick dissolution of the government by the prime minister, Hensley Koeiman of the Partido MAN, barely a few months after the last general election, held on October 5th. This risk was highlighted by The Economist Intelligence Unit in our previous report. The dissolution of the government was triggered by the withdrawal of the two members of Pueblo Soberano (PS) from the ruling coalition, stripping it of its majority in the Staten (the legislature). New elections are scheduled for April 28th. A fragmented political environment will provide little guarantee of stability going forward. Following the October elections, the Partido MAN held just four seats out of 21, which means that any successive government will consist of a loose coalition, and will run the risk of losing a majority if any of the parties withdraws-as has repeatedly occurred throughout the past decade.

The next government will find it difficult to avoid a continuation of the political volatility that has affected the island in recent years. The political establishment has been rocked by major corruption allegations over the past year, most recently involving the president of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS, the Curaçao and Sint Maarten joint central bank), Emsley Tromp. Earlier in 2016, a former prime minister, Gerrit Schotte (2010-12) of the opposition Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK), was convicted on bribery charges and sentenced to three years in jail and a five-year ban from public office. Despite this, Mr Schotte was allowed to run in the election and the MFK came close to winning, with 16% of the vote and four seats in the Staten. It is unclear whether the conviction will be upheld; if he is allowed to remain in the legislature, Mr Schotte is likely to remain a strong candidate in the upcoming April election, given that his party led the opposition to the now dissolved coalition government led by Mr Koeiman.

The upcoming government will also have to address weak growth and implement unpopular policies, such as changes to public pension entitlements and to the education and healthcare systems, along with tax reform; these could easily be derailed by special interest groups. The business environment will continue to be hampered by political and policy uncertainty, with further corruption scandals also possible.