The current-account deficit reached 15.3% of GDP in 2015 and we estimate that it narrowed to 13.8% of GDP in 2016. The trade deficit has improved as a result of a decline in trade-related oil refinery activities (which have large import components), and also of weak demand for consumer imports, which is outstripping a decline in export earnings. Continued modest growth in investment and in the economy as a whole will begin to push up demand for imported goods, but the trade deficit will still shrink as oil import costs remain contained. We expect a further widening of the surplus on the services account as tourism growth continues to recover, but this will be partly offset by growth in the deficits on the income and current transfers accounts. Overall, these trends are expected to result in a modest narrowing of the current-account deficit. Inward direct investment is showing signs of an upturn in response to recovering tourism (the figure of US$245.4m in 2015 was the highest tally since 2008, although the US$64.7m received in the first half of 2016 is less than the year-earlier period), but a more significant increase will have to wait until government reform efforts improve competitiveness. Curaçao has access to bilateral and multilateral loans, and we expect this to remain the case, minimising the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis. International reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at US$1.4bn at end-September (up from US$1.3bn at end-2015), providing just over 13 months of import cover.