Country Report Curaçao 1st Quarter 2016

Outlook for 2016-17: Policy trends

Under the auspices of the Netherlands-based Council for Financial Oversight (CFT), the island has made some important structural changes over the past two years that should see its fiscal position improve into the longer term. Among these is an increase rise in the retirement age from 60 to 65, an additional sales tax of 9% on luxury goods, a more progressive property tax, and a reduction in the number of public servants in order to ease the public-sector wage bill. Additional reform efforts have been focused on healthcare, such as the implementation of a basic medical insurance scheme and preference for generics in order to reduce the medicine bill. These measures, combined with a spending freeze, have helped the island to reverse the deficits that were accumulated during the Schotte administration. Nevertheless, resistance by the private sector and labour unions to further tax rises is high, and Curaçao suffers from other fiscal vulnerabilities, including the need to keep social spending high, particularly on healthcare, given the island's rapidly deteriorating demographics compared with the rest of the Dutch-speaking Caribbean. Despite these challenges, the short time left before the next election means that major reforms are unlikely to be implemented until after a new government is sworn in.

The opening of state utilities to competition and private-sector investment will also advance only slowly, and the government will also need to address the issue of underperforming state-owned companies. A policy of encouraging alternative, sustainable electricity generation and energy conservation in order to reduce dependence on imported fuel oil is making progress, but will be hindered if the weakness of international oil prices proves sustained, as this would undermine the competitiveness of alternative energy sources and the adoption of energy-saving measures, unless further fiscal concessions were offered. The island will remain an attractive tourism destination, but depends heavily on Venezuelan demand, which will be affected by that country's ongoing recession (stopover visitors from Venezuela were down by 4.9% in January-October). On the positive side, Curaçao has a more diversified economy than the rest of the Dutch-speaking Caribbean, which means that it is less vulnerable to a slump in tourism or any other single sector.

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