Outlook for 2011-12

• The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to secure his rule over the country and the governing Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG), but grievances about his election and reforms will lead to periodic protests and strikes.
• The dissolution of the opposition Union nationale removes this electoral threat to the PDG ahead of the next legislative election in 2011.
• Turning Gabon into an "emerging" economy will remain the guiding policy principle, but success will depend on the government's ability to develop much-needed infrastructure and diversify into higher value-added activities.
• Real GDP growth is forecast to average 5.6% in 2011-12 as a new oil well comes on stream, following the estimated rebound of 5.7% in 2010, supported by public spending and sectors such as wood and manganese.
• Consumer price inflation will accelerate from a revised 1.5% in 2010. External price pressures and a weaker currency will see average inflation of 3.9% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012, despite price caps and tax cuts.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to improve from an estimated 12.5% of GDP in 2010 to 17.4% in 2011, on the back of elevated oil prices and rising non-oil exports, before falling to 9% in 2012 as export prices fall.

Monthly review

• The government has revealed plans to introduce a biometric electoral roll in advance of the next legislative election, due in December 2011, which will boost the government's credibility in being seen to address corruption.
• The biometric electoral roll was a precondition for the potential alliance between the PDG and the opposition Union du people gabonais. Its leader, Pierre Mamboundou, is expected to be appointed vice-president.
• The country's main oil workers' union went on strike on March 31st-April 4th, demanding a limit to the number of foreign workers and an increase in the provision of training for locals, to which the government assented.
• Oil output has been interrupted briefly, causing fuel shortages. An audit of the sector is planned, with the findings to be incorporated in a new mining code.
• Two teachers' unions have also gone on strike, one demanding better pay and conditions, the other the reinstatement of members sacked for their involvement in the short-lived parallel administration of André Mba Obame.
• An Indian firm, Tata Chemicals, has acquired a 25.1% stake in a project to build an ammonia-urea factory near Libreville, reducing the holdings of both the government and the project's originator, Olam, of Singapore.