We estimate that officially recorded government revenue rose by an estimated 31.6% in fiscal year 2010/11 (April 1st-March 31st), on the back of rising oil prices and condensate export volumes and increasing investment income. Current expenditure will continue increasing significantly over the forecast period, as will capital expenditure, which is expected to rise by 33% this year. Qatar's fiscal revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, although well below the rate of the previous five years. Officially recorded revenue (which excludes most LNG revenue) is forecast to grow by an average of 9.1% between 2011/12 and 2015/16, as oil prices are expected to stay relatively strong. The actual revenue growth rate (including all LNG revenue) will be slightly higher, at 9.7%. Oil and gas will continue to represent about three-quarters of revenue, although the composition will tilt increasingly towards LNG. We estimate that income on foreign assets represented around 25% of officially recognised government revenue in 2010/11 and forecast that this ratio will remain substantial over the next five years, providing a cushion for the public finances if energy prices prove weaker than forecast. Following the decision to host the football World Cup in Qatar, the government will focus much of its efforts on ensuring that the vast infrastructure projects outlined in its bid are carried out, necessitating a large increase in the capital budget towards the end of the forecast period. Qatar may also follow steps taken by other countries in the GCC, most prominently Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, by increasing public-sector spending, to pre-empt discontent among its citizens.

We estimate that the official budget surplus in 2010/11 reached QR57.1bn (US$15.7bn), or 12.4% of GDP, based on a fiscal year average oil price of US$78.4/barrel for Qatari crude. However, most LNG revenue is excluded from the official fiscal account and, were this to be included, our estimate would be an even larger surplus of 20.6% of GDP. In 2011/12 we expect the surplus to widen to 14.8% of GDP on the narrow, official method of recording revenue, owing to increases in oil prices, oil export volumes, tax revenue and investment income from the QIA. The official budget surplus will average 10.8% of GDP in 2012-15.