Qatar will maintain its high-profile foreign policy, spearheaded by Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem. By using its web of myriad (and, at times, conflicting) alliances in the region and beyond, Qatar has projected itself as an impartial mediator in many of the region's conflicts, often backing up its efforts with financial assistance. Although its mediation was initially successful in Lebanon in 2008, and its efforts in the Darfur conflict in Sudan have made some headway, Qatar's involvement in Palestinian affairs has been controversial, and its success in Lebanon proved transitory. Its high-profile diplomatic engagement on multiple fronts also increases the risk of straining relations with allies that disapprove of its policies or feel that Qatar is interfering in their own spheres of influence. However, recently Qatar has temporarily abandoned its intermediary role and participated militarily in the current NATO-led intervention in Libya. This move will probably only further antagonise some of its regional peers, especially in light of the statement by the chief of staff of the Qatari Air Force, who told reporters in March: "Certain countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt haven't taken leadership for the last three years." Recent Qatari backing for a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) initiative in Yemen, which proposes that the country's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, step down, led to Yemen recalling its ambassador in April, giving a further insight into the potential downsides of Qatar's increasingly assertive foreign policy.

Qatar will struggle to distance itself from the stand-off between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme, not least because of the large US military presence on its soil. However, it is unlikely that the US would launch an attack on Iran (although an Israeli strike is slightly more likely). Although Iran and Qatar have strong economic links-they share the giant North Field gas reservoir, for instance-and the emir has hosted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president, several times, the growing US military presence in the region will inevitably affect relations.

In the past, Qatar has maintained some low-level relations with Israel, and it would be one of the first Arab countries to make moves towards normalisation in the low-probability scenario that the Arab-Israeli peace process progresses. Relations with Saudi Arabia have improved, following the reinstatement of a Saudi ambassador to Qatar in 2008 after a five-year hiatus and the subsequent signing of a bilateral agreement. However, there may be occasional setbacks over the forecast period as Qatar pursues an independent foreign policy, rather than deferring to its larger neighbour.