The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Qatar to remain stable and secure under the rule of the emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, in 2011-15. There will be little vocal opposition to his rule and economic policies, largely because the government has ensured that most Qatari citizens have benefited from the wealth that the country has accrued over the past decade, but also because the Qatari press exercises self-censorship. Recent unrest across the region is unlikely to spread to Qatar, which, despite having limited freedom of expression, faces few of the unemployment and poverty issues seen in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Bahrain. Regional unrest may, however, encourage the emir to take pre-emptive steps to ensure that the Qatari population remains content with the system of governance, including by introducing several, long-delayed elements of the 2005 constitution, such as the inauguration of a two-thirds-elected Majlis al-Shura (Advisory Council). Any moves to increase political participation will, however, meet opposition from among the key families in Qatar, some of whom favour a more conservative political system that protects their vested interests.

There is occasional friction within the ruling family and a history of internal coups, most recently when the emir overthrew his father in 1995, but the country has appeared stable in recent years. Although the emir (born in 1952) is younger than other Gulf rulers, there have been concerns about his health. His fourth son, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, was appointed as heir apparent in 2003 (replacing his third son) and has been taking an increasingly active role in government. The emir's cousin (twice removed), Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, who is prime minister and foreign minister, would help to ensure a stable transition were the emir to die. After a suicide bombing at a theatre popular with Westerners in 2005, there have been no further attacks, and a sustained terrorist campaign is unlikely given that there is little social discontent in the country and the security apparatus has been strengthened considerably.