Outlook for 2011-15

• The emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, will focus on economic and foreign policy issues. However, given the ongoing regional social unrest, he may feel increasingly inclined to initiate domestic political reforms.
• Qatar will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy, maintaining a high profile through its mediation efforts in various countries. Balancing its conflicting relations with the US and Iran will remain the top priority.
• Real GDP growth will remain high in 2011, reaching 15.8%, but will slow to an average of 5.4% in 2012-15, as no new major energy projects are planned over the period.
• The fiscal surplus (excluding most LNG revenue) widened to an estimated 12.4% of GDP (QR57.2bn; US$15bn) in 2010/11. It will widen further to 14.8% of GDP in 2011/12 and is expected to average 10.8% of GDP in 2012-15.
• The consumer price index declined by an estimated average of 2.4% in 2010, but consumer prices will rise again in 2011, by 4.2%, as property prices begin to recover and domestic demand stays strong.
• The current account recorded an estimated surplus of US$15.1bn (13% of GDP) in 2010 and is expected to remain heavily in surplus in 2011-15, owing to continued strong hydrocarbons exports.

Monthly review

• The emir has hosted a prominent Iraqi Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, in Doha. The meeting was organised to discuss efforts to mediate between the government and opposition in Bahrain.
• Qatar has withdrawn from the Gulf Co-operation Council's initiative to mediate between Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the opposition in the country, as tensions between Qatar and Yemen worsened in May.
• The Qatari government has doubled the loan amounts available to citizens at zero interest. The move is seen as a bid to ensure popular support for the government at a time of increasing tensions throughout the region.
• The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has announced that it will start issuing three-month Treasury bills in June. The QCB hopes that the first two US$2bn issues will mop up excess liquidity in the banking system.
• Qatar Petroleum has signed an exploration and production sharing agreement with two Japanese energy companies. The deal gives the companies the right to explore for oil and gas in the pre-Khuff formation under the North Field.
• Qatar has held talks with several Japanese power companies to provide extra supplies of LNG. Japan already imports 10m tonne/year of Qatari gas.