Country Report Yemen May 2011

The political scene: Protesters reject deal

It seemed that neither the brokers of the deal nor the protagonists had sufficiently considered public sentiment, however. Activists on the street wholeheartedly rejected it, insisting that Mr Saleh go immediately. Having in the past heard the president agree to deals and then renege upon them, the protesters said that they would not leave the streets until the president left, a stance that contravened the agreement, since part of the bargain was that the demonstrations would cease immediately. They also objected to a separate clause in the plan that gives Yemen's parliament the right to reject the president's resignation, arguing that since Mr Saleh's party, the GPC, held a vast majority in parliament, this was highly likely. The granting of immunity also proved to be a particular bugbear, with the youth movement adamant that Mr Saleh face trial. In a statement, the movement voiced its rejection of "any proposal that does not hold Saleh accountable for the killing of more than 140 revolutionary protesters".

The protesters believe themselves to be in a strong position, and are unwilling to settle for anything less than a comprehensive change that would not only entail Mr Saleh departing immediately, but also put in place the framework for the creation of a federal democratic state. Indeed, some demonstrators have argued that the rather piecemeal and shallow transition plan is a deliberate attempt by the GCC leaders, unnerved by Yemen's display of people power, to undermine the revolution. Either way, the protesters' combative stance served to enrage Mr Saleh, who intimated the next day that he would not accept the deal after all. In an interview with the UK-based BBC, he described the move to topple him as a "coup", adding: "We will do it through ballot boxes and referendums ... a coup is not acceptable." With an eye on the US administration, Mr Saleh also sought to play up the terrorist threat posed by a disorderly transition in Yemen, asking, rhetorically: "Why is the West not looking at this terrorist activity and the dangers it holds for the future?" Certainly al-Qaida activity has increased in recent weeks as militants have sought to exploit the growing instability. However, whether they pose the level of threat that Mr Saleh claims remains a moot point, particularly given the widespread suspicion in Yemen that he has sought to leverage the al-Qaida danger in order to gain financial support from the West.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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