Cambodia's economy is recovering, but annual growth will not return to the highs of around 10% seen in the years preceding the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The economy is forecast to expand by 5.1% in 2011 and by 6.3% in 2012. The garment sector remains particularly exposed to the US economy, which was Cambodia's main export market, accounting for almost one-half of its export earnings, until 2009 when garment exports to the US slumped amid the global recession. Garment sector-led economic growth will remain fragile, with global growth expected to slow again in 2011, but garment shipments to Europe may improve following a recent change to the Everything But Arms agreement, which provides the world's least developed countries with duty- and quota-free access to the EU. As a net importer of oil, Cambodia is at risk from a rise in the international price of oil (dated Brent Blend), which we expect to average US$101/barrel in 2011, up from US$79.6/b in 2010. There are signs that construction is recovering, but the decision by two South Korean developers in late 2010 to suspend work on two major property projects in Phnom Penh suggests that the sector is some way from pre-crisis levels of activity. Agriculture will become an increasingly important source of growth, in line with the government's plans to boost exports of milled rice, while the tourism sector will attract more visitors in the forecast period.