Country Report Cambodia May 2011

Highlights

Outlook for 2011-12

  • The ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will remain politically dominant in 2011-12. The CPP controls more than two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament).
  • The apparatus of the state will continue to be used against the government's opponents, such as the opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, who remains in self-imposed exile after being sentenced in absentia to a total of 12 years in prison.
  • Cambodia's economy is recovering, but growth will not return to the highs of around 10% that were recorded in the years preceding the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Real GDP will expand by 5.1% in 2011 and by 6.3% in 2012.
  • Monetary policy will have to be tightened as inflationary pressures re-emerge in 2011, but the National Bank of Cambodia (the central bank) will not rush into raising the banking sector's reserve requirement.
  • Consumer price inflation will accelerate to 6.1% on an annual average basis in 2011, mainly because of a rise in global commodity prices, but price growth will decelerate to 4.9% in 2012.
  • The current-account deficit will remain substantial as a proportion of GDP in the forecast period, but Cambodia will avoid financing difficulties owing to its healthy foreign-exchange reserves and a recovery in foreign direct investment.

Monthly review

  • Cambodian and Thai officials met in early April to prevent further clashes at the Preah Vihear temple. But the decision by the Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, to boycott the talks suggests that progress will be slow.
  • The prime minister, Hun Sen, has publicly disclosed his assets in line with a new anti-corruption law. But critics of the prime minister have questioned his claim to draw a monthly salary of only around US$1,160.
  • The foreign minister, Hor Nam Hong, has asked the US to lower the interest rate on loans that it has made to General Lon Nol's government after 1970. He has also asked that 70% of the debt be converted into development assistance.
  • The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Cambodia's economic growth to accelerate to 6.5% in 2011. However, the bank has called for diversification of the economy and improvement of the investment climate.
  • According to the ADB, risks to Cambodia's recovery come mainly from external events, such as global economic weakness or higher oil prices.
  • A number of construction projects in Cambodia are nearing completion, including a US$1bn luxury development on the island of Koh Puos, suggesting that the country's property sector may be on the cusp of recovery.

Outlook for 2011-12: Political stability

The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will remain politically dominant in the forecast period. At the July 2008 general election the CPP tightened its grip on power, winning 90 of the 123 seats in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament). The CPP's electoral victories, coupled with the authoritarian tendencies of the prime minister, Hun Sen, and the ruling party's harsh treatment of its opponents, have increased concerns that Cambodia is becoming a de facto one-party state with few checks on executive power. In recent years the courts have upheld several convictions against prominent opposition figures, such as Sam Rainsy, the leader of the main opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), who has been sentenced in absentia to a total of 12 years in prison. The opposition leader, who on March 15th was stripped of his seat in parliament after losing an appeal at the Supreme Court, has chosen to remain abroad rather than return home to a prison cell.

The state apparatus will continue to be used against the government's opponents. Officials in the capital, Phnom Penh, have outlawed demonstrations except at an officially designated "freedom park" away from government buildings and parliament. A new penal code, which entered into force in December, has tightened restrictions on freedom of expression. Reforms aimed at strengthening governance will be assigned a lower priority than efforts to entrench CPP rule, as seen in early 2010, when the National Assembly approved an anti-corruption law under which an anti-corruption council and other bodies are answerable to the very officials whom they are meant to hold to account. Hun Sen has also ordered leading companies to sponsor units of the armed forces-a move that will make the military even less accountable. Also, a proposed law on non-governmental organisations poses a serious threat to civil society. On April 6th more than 60 international organisations working in Cambodia called on the government to abandon the draft law.

Social tensions will persist during the forecast period. As the economy has recovered from the 2009 recession and the threat of redundancy faced by factory workers has receded, trade unions in the garment sector have grown more assertive, staging a series of strikes over pay. A proposed law on trade unions, which, as it is currently drafted, would impose new restrictions on organised labour, has also elicited strike threats. A recent spike in global commodity prices could raise the cost of living in Cambodia and result in renewed economic hardship. Meanwhile, land grabs by agricultural companies and property developers, often with close links to senior members of the CPP, will continue to drive communities from their homes. The SRP-led opposition will seek to exploit any increase in tensions for its own political ends, but Hun Sen is now so entrenched in power that any electoral challenge to his rule seems set to fail.

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

The result of the next general election, which is due in mid-2013, appears to be a foregone conclusion, with Hun Sen's CPP expected to record another convincing victory. In 2009 the SRP and another opposition party, the Human Rights Party (HRP), led by Kem Sokha, formed an alliance, the Democratic Movement for Change, to contest indirect elections to provincial and district councils. However, the move proved ineffective. The two parties concluded another power-sharing agreement in early March 2011 and a formal merger is possible ahead of the next general election. At the 2008 election they won a combined 29 seats in the lower house (26 for the SRP and three for the HRP), a modest improvement on their performance in the 2003 poll. However, their gains came at the expense of the two royalist parties, the Norodom Ranariddh Party and the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC), rather than hurting the CPP. Direct elections to commune councils that are to be held in early 2012 may provide an early indication of the likely scale of the CPP's victory at the 2013 general poll.

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

Relations between Cambodia and Thailand remain problematic. The Thai government continues to suspect Hun Sen of supporting a self-exiled former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the dispute over the territory surrounding the ancient Preah Vihear temple on the Cambodian-Thai border has yet to be resolved. The stand-off escalated in early February into the most serious fighting yet as Cambodia and Thailand exchanged heavy artillery fire, killing at least 11 people. Attempts to resolve the dispute by Indonesia, which presently holds the rotating chairmanship of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), have accomplished little. In early April the Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, boycotted two days of Indonesian-brokered talks, suggesting that any progress will be slow. Cambodia and Thailand also have yet to resolve the disputed sovereignty of resource-rich maritime areas in the Gulf of Thailand.

Rivalry between China and the US for influence in Cambodia is set to intensify in 2011-12. China has become an important partner for Hun Sen's government, owing in part to its cancellation of Cambodia's debt repayments falling due in 2010, as well as its financing of large-scale infrastructure projects. Unlike US assistance, which is typically conditional on greater respect for human rights, China's assistance has come without such strings attached. Cambodia's relations with Vietnam will be close while Hun Sen remains in power.

Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends

As economic growth accelerates in 2011-12, the government will begin to withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus that it introduced in response to the 2008-09 global financial crisis. However, fiscal policy will remain broadly expansionary. According to the 2011 budget, which was approved by the lower house in November 2010, government expenditure in US dollar terms is set to rise by around 20% from its 2010 level, to US$2.4bn. As inflationary pressures return, the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC, the central bank) will seek to restrain growth in the money supply, but the effectiveness of monetary policy will be hampered by the fact that the economy is highly dollarised. The global recession exposed Cambodia's structural economic vulnerabilities, notably a dependence on garment exports, and Hun Sen's government has responded by seeking to develop other sources of economic growth, particularly in the agricultural sector. As part of plans for the country to become a major rice exporter, the government has set a target of raising exports of milled rice to at least 1m tonnes by 2015. Cambodia currently lacks the modern machinery required to meet export standards for developed countries, so it mostly exports paddy rice to neighbouring countries for processing.

Outlook for 2011-12: Fiscal policy

Despite an improvement in tax collection and plans to impose a new tax on properties valued over CR100m (US$24,000), government revenue will remain low relative to GDP in the forecast period. The government will therefore continue to depend on foreign grants and loans to finance its deficit, which the Economist Intelligence Unit estimates to have reached 5.6% of GDP in 2010. So far the country's donors, known collectively as the Cambodia Development Co-operation Forum, have pledged to provide US$958m in assistance in 2011 and US$751m in 2012. The government had hoped that oil production from fields in the Gulf of Thailand would provide new revenue in the form of taxes and royalties, but oil is now not expected to begin flowing until at least 2012. Weak revenue growth, combined with rises in expenditure (especially on defence and wages), will ensure that the budget remains in the red. The government does not issue Treasury bills or other securities, and it would therefore meet any financing shortfall by drawing on its deposits at the NBC, which have fallen from a high of CR3trn (US$740m) in April 2009 to CR2.2trn in January 2011, representing a decline of 29%.

Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy

The effectiveness of monetary policy will remain limited, owing to extensive dollarisation of the economy. The NBC will begin to tighten monetary policy in 2011, but the authorities do not appear to be in a rush to raise the banking sector's reserve requirement, which currently stands at 12%. Money supply growth remains relatively strong, with broad money (M2) expanding by 20.8% year on year in January. Bank lending to the private sector has followed a similar pattern, with claims on the private sector rising by 24.8% in that month. However, with growth in bank lending to the private sector still far below the highs of over 100% that were recorded in early 2008, it will be some time before the reserve requirement is returned to its pre-crisis peak of 16%.

Outlook for 2011-12: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2009201020112012
Real GDP growth
World-0.74.94.34.2
OECD-3.52.92.52.3
China9.210.39.08.7
EU27-4.21.81.91.7
Exchange rates
¥:US$93.787.981.881.0
US$:€1.3931.3261.3651.295
SDR:US$0.6460.6520.6370.648
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate1.230.841.331.88
US$ 3-month Libor0.690.340.410.79
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)61.979.6101.085.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)973.01,224.71,367.31,232.5
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)-20.411.730.3-12.1
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-25.644.528.0-10.7
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Outlook for 2011-12: Economic growth

Cambodia's economy is recovering, but annual growth will not return to the highs of around 10% seen in the years preceding the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The economy is forecast to expand by 5.1% in 2011 and by 6.3% in 2012. The garment sector remains particularly exposed to the US economy, which was Cambodia's main export market, accounting for almost one-half of its export earnings, until 2009 when garment exports to the US slumped amid the global recession. Garment sector-led economic growth will remain fragile, with global growth expected to slow again in 2011, but garment shipments to Europe may improve following a recent change to the Everything But Arms agreement, which provides the world's least developed countries with duty- and quota-free access to the EU. As a net importer of oil, Cambodia is at risk from a rise in the international price of oil (dated Brent Blend), which we expect to average US$101/barrel in 2011, up from US$79.6/b in 2010. There are signs that construction is recovering, but the decision by two South Korean developers in late 2010 to suspend work on two major property projects in Phnom Penh suggests that the sector is some way from pre-crisis levels of activity. Agriculture will become an increasingly important source of growth, in line with the government's plans to boost exports of milled rice, while the tourism sector will attract more visitors in the forecast period.

Outlook for 2011-12: Inflation

Inflation will accelerate in 2011, with consumer prices rising by 6.1% on an annual average basis, up from 4% in 2010. Although demand-side pressures have increased in line with the recovery in domestic demand, the main contribution to inflation this year will come from higher international prices for oil and non-oil commodities, notably for food. The rate of inflation will slow in 2012, when consumer prices will rise by an annual average of 4.9%, in line with lower global commodity prices.

Outlook for 2011-12: Exchange rates

Although the riel regained ground against the US dollar towards the end of 2010, the Cambodian currency depreciated by 1.1% in the year as a whole. Partly owing to the riel's rebound in the fourth quarter of 2010, when the currency strengthened by more than 4% against the US dollar, the riel will appreciate by 2.4% on an annual average basis in 2011. However, the large deficit on the current account will weigh down on the riel, and the NBC will therefore intervene periodically to support the currency by selling the country's foreign-exchange reserves. The riel will depreciate by 0.6% in 2012. Given the continuing lack of confidence in the riel, the US dollar will remain the currency of choice in Cambodia for trade and investment.

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector

The merchandise trade deficit will remain substantial in the forecast period, owing to Cambodia's reliance on imported capital goods. Even after economic growth recovers in the US, Cambodia's leading export market until 2009, garment manufacturers will struggle to compete with more efficient producers. There will be an increase in demand for imported trade-related services, such as insurance and freight, but the services account will remain in surplus, the result of increasing tourism revenue. The income deficit will narrow during the forecast period, owing to increased returns on Cambodia's holdings of foreign reserves. From the equivalent of an estimated 8% of GDP in 2010, we expect the current-account deficit to narrow to 6.9% of GDP on average in 2011-12.

Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary

Forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2009a2010b2011c2012c
Real GDP growth-1.5b4.75.16.3
Gross agricultural production growth4.9b4.45.06.0
Consumer price inflation (av)-0.74.0a6.14.9
Base lending rate15.815.6a15.916.1
Central government balance (% of GDP)-8.1b-5.6-5.3-5.5
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)4.35.56.37.4
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)-5.9-7.3-8.6-9.9
Current-account balance (US$ bn)-0.9-1.0-1.2-1.0
Current-account balance (% of GDP)-8.1b-8.0-7.3-6.5
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av)4,1394,185a4,0864,112
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period)4,1654,051a4,0994,099
Exchange rate CR:¥100 (av)4,4174,762a4,9985,076
Exchange rate CR:€ (end-period)5,9695,501a5,4115,206
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

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The political scene: The Thai foreign minister is absent from border talks

Cambodia and Thailand have held talks in the Indonesian city of Bogor in an attempt to prevent further clashes over the disputed territory surrounding the Preah Vihear temple on their shared border. At a meeting on April 7th-8th of the Joint Boundary Commission, a bilateral body established in 2000, senior Cambodian and Thai officials, including the Cambodian foreign minister, Hor Nam Hong, discussed secondary issues, such as aerial photos of the disputed border, a survey of border markers and new border checkpoints. But the Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, was conspicuously absent from the meeting-Kasit's no-show suggests further progress may be slow.

At present Indonesia holds the rotating chairmanship of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and is acting as a mediator in the dispute. At a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, on February 22nd, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to allow Indonesian observers to visit the disputed border area, where significant clashes occurred in early February, killing at least 11 people. But the Indonesian observers have yet to be deployed after the Thai military backtracked on April 5th, stating that the observers would be barred from the area. The Thai army seems to be acting independently of the government. In early April the supreme commander of the Thai armed forces, Songkitti Jaggabatara, said that the agreement that the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs had reached with Cambodia and Indonesia over the observers had nothing to do with the military.

Thailand seems to be the reticent party in negotiations, despite its preference for bilateral talks, as opposed to the Cambodian policy of seeking a multilateral solution. The contradictory Thai responses may stem from the current fractious state of politics in Thailand, with nationalists, including Kasit, using the Preah Vihear clash to distract from other pressing issues at home and to garner support from the many Thais who consider the temple and the surrounding land as Thai territory. Attempts to damage Thai-Cambodian negotiations over Preah Vihear may also be a ploy by political rivals to discredit the Thai prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has increasingly been trying to distance himself from his ultra-nationalist, staunchly royalist former allies. Thailand may also be trying to humiliate Indonesia, which is seen by some Thais to be interfering through its offer to facilitate negotiations.

The political scene: Hun Sen claims to draw only a humble salary

In line with the provisions of a new anti-corruption law, on April 1st the prime minister, Hun Sen, disclosed details of his assets. He also claimed to draw a monthly salary of CR4.6m (US$1,160), even though he is not required by law to disclose this publicly. More than 100,000 officials must declare their assets and business interests under the anti-graft law, which was passed in early 2010. However, these declarations remain secret until there are grounds for making them public. Non-governmental organisations were quick to express doubts over the prime minister's claimed salary. Although Hun Sen may indeed draw only a small official salary, his assets, including an impressive property close to the Independence Monument in the capital, Phnom Penh, and a large compound in the suburb of Takhmao, suggest that he has a far higher income. Hun Sen's salary claim, made during a press conference, came with an appeal for other officials to follow his lead in disclosing their assets and incomes to the Anti-Corruption Unit (ACU). In this context, Hun Sen's declaration may be seen as encouragement to officials that they need not necessarily list all their income but disclose instead only a token "official" salary.

Corruption is the glue that binds together Cambodia's patronage networks, and so the authorities' critics doubt whether Hun Sen genuinely desires to eliminate graft-an erosion of the unofficial incomes underpaid officials rely on could undermine support for his government. The anti-corruption law has serious flaws, with the ACU, which is in charge of routine investigations, coming under the purview of the Council of Ministers (the cabinet). In the absence of any separation of power, it seems improbable that the institution will act as a credible check on the executive. Indeed, Hun Sen's assertion to have fulfilled his obligations under the anti-corruption law could be interpreted as representing the minimum needed to placate donors and development partners, who have long pressed for stronger anti-graft legislation. In addition to confidential asset disclosures, Cambodia's anti-corruption measures are weakened by not considering the assets of family members or assets held offshore.

Economic policy: Cambodia and the US discuss "dirty debt"

Cambodian and US officials held talks on March 17th to explore ways of settling over US$400m of loans given by the US to the government of General Lon Nol, who came to power in a US-backed coup in 1970. Cambodia says the money helped fund a devastating bombing campaign by US forces targeting the Khmer Rouge, the murderous communist movement that ruled the country in 1975-79. Cambodia has called for the debt to be cancelled, but it has softened its stance since the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said in November that the US was willing to discuss alternative ways to repay the sum.

During talks with the US deputy assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Joseph Yun, Hor Nam Hong asked the US to lower the interest rate on the loans from 3% to 1%. The foreign minister also asked that 70% of the debt be converted into development assistance, with the remainder to be paid back. The US embassy in Phnom Penh said that the US hopes that an agreement can be reached that "would enhance Cambodia's creditworthiness and ability to access international capital markets."

Economic performance: The ADB forecasts a recovery in Cambodia's GDP growth

Cambodia's real GDP should expand by 6.5% this year, from 6.3% in 2010, thanks to agriculture, tourism and garments, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its 2011 Asian Development Outlook, published in April. The ADB forecast 6.8% GDP growth in 2012, but cautioned that Cambodia must address several major development challenges if it is to achieve sustainable growth and reduce poverty. The ADB's senior country economist, Peter Brimble, said a continued recovery of exports and tourism in 2011 is expected to help Cambodia sustain its return to a long-term growth path of 6-7%. However, he added that the pressure is now on to accelerate economic diversification and improve the general investment climate. The ADB's forecast is in line with the Cambodian government's prediction of 6-7% growth in 2011.

Agriculture, which accounts for about one-third of GDP, is expected to expand by 4.3% this year. Agriculture grew by an estimated 4.2% in 2010, according to the ADB, with paddy-rice production up by around 5%, to 7.9m tonnes, mainly as a result of favourable weather, investment in irrigation and better access to fertilisers and seeds. Livestock production also increased by around 5.5%. Given that around 70% of Cambodians are still involved in farming, the country's effort to promote rice production and exports goes some way to addressing the need to diversify sources of economic growth and reduce rural poverty, the ADB said. However, some observers question whether moves towards large-scale industrialised plantations will benefit smallholders, many of whom farm at a subsistence level.

Growth in industry this year is projected by the ADB at around 10.8%, based on expected garment orders from the US and Europe. The growth in EU-bound exports is partly due to a relaxation of rules of origin requirements on imports of Cambodian clothing, allowing more garments that are made in Cambodia to enter the EU tax-free under the 2001 Everything But Arms treaty. Industry was the main contributor to GDP growth in 2010, according to the ADB, expanding by 11.6% after a contraction in 2009. Last year merchandise exports rose by an estimated 20.8% in US dollar terms, largely reflecting growth in garment exports to the US. However, imports rose by an estimated 15.9%, mainly because of higher prices for oil and raw materials.

The ADB forecast growth of around 5% in services this year, driven by significantly higher tourism receipts. A recovery in global travel saw tourist arrivals to Cambodia in 2010 rise by around 16%, to 2.5m, and tourism receipts increase by 14.5%, to US$1.8bn. Data from the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Tourism show arrivals to Cambodia in January 2011 (the latest available data) rising by 18.9% year on year, with arrivals at Phnom Penh International Airport up by 10.9%, Siem Reap International Airport by 30.5%, and arrivals by land and boat up by 15.8%. However, there are signs that higher-spending, long-haul Western tourists may have been replaced by lower-spending regional visitors. The ADB noted that the biggest visitor gains in 2010 were arrivals from Asia, including neighbouring Vietnam (up by 48% to 466,700), South Korea (up 47% to 289,700) and China (up 39% to 177,700).

Risks to the forecasts centre on external events, such as unexpected global economic weakness or higher-than-assumed oil prices, which could hurt prospects for tourism and clothing exports and push up domestic inflation. The ADB forecasts annual inflation of 5.5% in 2011, up from 4% in 2010, owing to external price shocks. Inflation is likely to cause pain for low-income Cambodians, who already spend the majority of their wages on fuel and food. Better regional connectivity with Thailand, Laos and Vietnam could benefit Cambodia, said the ADB, but only with improved competitiveness. The garment, agriculture and tourism sectors are stymied by the high cost of transport, energy and related infrastructure. According to the ADB, transport and logistics costs should be cut, bureaucratic procedures at ports and border crossings streamlined and unofficial fees reduced. The ADB urged Cambodia to improve the quality of existing products and services, and to develop skills to add value to products.

Economic performance: The property sector shows a slight recovery

Cambodia's beleaguered property sector may be showing the first signs of recovery, with a number of projects nearing completion. Koh Puos Investment Group, the local firm behind a US$1bn development on Koh Puos, a small island off the coast of Preah Sihanouk province, said earlier this year that construction of its first phase of 36 villas had begun. The firm said that the first phase of villa construction would be finished by the end of 2011. A 900-metre-long bridge connecting the island to the popular resort of Sihanoukville was said to be 85% finished and on schedule for completion in June. The development is planned to include a luxury residential complex, four- and five-star hotels, business centres, shopping malls and casinos.

Meanwhile, in Phnom Penh the four 29-storey towers making up the US$70m Rose City development should be completed by mid-2011, the developer, the Overseas Cambodian Investment Corporation (OCIC), has claimed. The OCIC has stated that over 400 condominium units at Rose City, part of the larger Bassac Garden City development, have already been sold for US$100,000-200,000. The OCIC also holds stakes in the developments of Canadia Bank, Diamond Island City (Koh Pich) and Canadia Tower, at present Cambodia's tallest building. In 2010 the OCIC revealed controversial plans to construct Asia's second-tallest building on Koh Pich.

Nevertheless, the number of transactions is far below the peak recorded in the first half of 2008. Anecdotal accounts indicate few transactions, partly because Cambodians are reluctant to reduce their sale price; most property is not leveraged, meaning that distressed sales are rare. Banks only offer low loan-to-value ratio mortgages, generally at a maximum of 30%. The situation is further worsened by developers' preference for building high-end property, which is out of the reach of most Cambodians. Many finished properties on the periphery of Phnom Penh sit empty, and work has been halted on several half-finished high-rise buildings.

In 2010 officials liberalised restrictions on foreign ownership of apartments, a measure which was expected to stimulate additional demand. But uncertainty owing to the poor rule of law and declining prices make Cambodia unattractive. Despite the signs of progress at Koh Puos and Rose City, work has yet to resume at two South Korean-financed property developments in Phnom Penh, the Star River and Gold Tower 42 projects, valued at US$300m and US$240m respectively. Work on the two projects was suspended in September.

Data and charts: Annual data and forecast

 2006a2007a2008a2009b2010b2011c2012c
GDP       
Nominal GDP (US$ bn)7.38.611.2b10.612.415.915.9
Nominal GDP (CR bn)29,84935,00245,434b43,97551,74964,77665,572
Real GDP growth (%)10.810.26.7b-1.54.75.16.3
Expenditure on GDP (% real change)       
Private consumption6.86.27.1b-1.05.04.85.7
Government consumption1.719.54.6b28.31.08.46.8
Gross fixed investment16.710.126.9b-12.38.612.411.4
Exports of goods & services19.210.12.9b-14.113.29.49.5
Imports of goods & services16.012.14.9b-12.613.710.110.1
Origin of GDP (% real change)       
Agriculture5.55.05.7b4.94.45.06.0
Industry18.38.44.1b-15.08.06.07.0
Services10.110.18.9b2.93.34.76.1
Population and income       
Population (m)14.114.314.614.815.115.315.6
GDP per head (US$ at PPP)1,635b1,825b1,957b1,9131,9882,0862,239
Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)       
Central government revenue11.511.912.0b11.511.910.712.3
Central government expenditure14.214.814.9b19.617.516.017.7
Central government balance-2.7-2.9-2.8b-8.1-5.6-5.3-5.5
Prices and financial indicators       
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period)4,0573,9994,0774,165a4,051a4,0994,099
Exchange rate CR:¥ (end-period)34.0935.8044.9144.75a49.06a50.2350.60
Consumer prices (end-period; %)4.214.012.55.3a3.1a6.44.5
Stock of money M1 (% change)26.423.616.929.5a3.5a9.514.1
Stock of money M2 (% change)40.561.85.435.6a21.3a17.319.6
Lending interest rate (av; %)16.416.216.015.8a15.6a15.916.1
Current account (US$ m)       
Trade balance-1,079-1,351-1,800-1,574a-1,851-2,358-2,439
 Goods: exports fob3,6924,0894,7084,302a5,4726,2897,438
 Goods: imports fob-4,771-5,439-6,509-5,876a-7,324-8,647-9,877
Services balance492632609603a670827967
Income balance-306-364-475-468a-482-479-426
Current transfers balance630595615574a668857862
Current-account balance-262-488-1,051-866a-994-1,153-1,036
External debt (US$ m)       
Debt stock3,5273,7614,2154,2824,3924,6944,762
Debt service paid114.230.242.129.630.431.233.3
 Principal repayments98.912.619.412.713.313.614.5
 Interest15.317.622.716.917.117.618.8
Debt service due136.966.6129.355.656.458.260.3
International reserves (US$ m)       
Total international reserves1,4112,1432,6413,288a3,802a4,2154,896
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.

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Data and charts: Quarterly data

 2009   2010   
 1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr
Prices        
Consumer prices (2000=100)136.2140.4145.6145.4145.6146.2148.2150.3
Consumer prices (% change, year on year)4.3-4.8-3.11.67.04.11.83.4
Financial indicators        
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av)4,1084,1234,1624,1644,1764,2044,2324,127
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period)4,0894,1604,1724,1654,1824,2224,2274,051
Deposit rate (av; %)1.91.91.51.31.31.31.31.2
Lending rate (av; %)16.215.715.815.615.615.615.615.8
M1 (end-period; CR bn)2,5382,7012,7743,0933,1323,0643,0373,200
M1 (% change, year on year)6.710.718.929.523.413.49.53.5
M2 (end-period; CR bn)12,56214,49014,93216,13717,26818,33018,98019,575
M2 (% change, year on year)5.215.918.935.637.526.527.121.3
Foreign trade and payments (US$ m)        
Exports fob1,264.11,098.1902.01,037.6n/an/an/an/a
Imports fob-1,514.7-1,616.8-1,431.3-1,313.0n/an/an/an/a
Merchandise trade balance fob-fob-250.6-518.7-529.3-275.4n/an/an/an/a
Services balance196.3102.9131.0172.3n/an/an/an/a
Income balance-104.9-96.5-140.7-126.2n/an/an/an/a
Net transfer payments154.3135.3150.0134.6n/an/an/an/a
Current-account balance-4.9-377.0-389.0-94.7n/an/an/an/a
Reserves excl gold (end-period)2,350.62,624.12,813.52,851.12,993.73,129.43,166.13,255.1
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.

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Data and charts: Monthly data

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av)
20094,0984,1184,1084,0984,1264,1464,1814,1494,1564,1674,1654,160
20104,1654,1824,1824,1864,2054,2214,2334,2354,2294,2244,0964,061
20114,050n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period)
20094,1124,1224,0894,1174,1374,1604,1874,1424,1724,1704,1594,165
20104,1674,1834,1824,2004,2154,2224,2374,2354,2274,2224,0754,051
20114,050n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Deposit rate (av; %)
20091.901.901.901.901.901.801.801.501.301.301.301.30
20101.301.301.301.301.301.301.301.301.201.201.201.20
20111.20n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Lending rate (av; %)
200916.6015.9015.9515.7315.7315.7515.9915.9715.4515.4515.6415.58
201015.6415.6215.6115.6015.5415.5415.5815.5815.5815.5715.8415.90
201115.23n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Money supply M1 (% change, year on year)
200913.511.26.72.35.410.710.215.318.927.936.229.5
201027.326.223.423.820.013.48.711.79.56.37.33.5
20112.9n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Money supply M2 (% change, year on year)
20093.00.55.24.84.815.913.814.218.929.435.535.6
201035.340.237.537.036.426.531.030.027.127.023.921.3
201120.8n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year)
20098.06.2-0.7-3.9-5.7-4.9-3.9-2.9-2.3-1.61.35.3
20106.97.36.75.34.52.61.61.81.93.73.23.1
2011n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)
20092,2892,2952,3512,4952,5942,6242,6962,7602,8132,8522,8502,851
20102,8992,9382,9943,0953,1093,1293,1673,1783,1663,1923,2343,255
20113,226n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Haver Analytics.

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Data and charts: Annual trends charts

Please see graphic below

Data and charts: Monthly trends charts

Please see graphic below

Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators

Please see graphic below

Basic data

Land area

181,035 sq km

Population

14.4m (IMF estimate for mid-2007)

Main towns

Population in '000 (1998 census)

Phnom Penh (capital): 999.8

Battambang: 793.1

Climate

Tropical; rainy season, May-October; dry season, November-April

Weather in Phnom Penh (39 ft above sea level)

Hottest months, March-April, average daily temperature 27°C (daily maximum 32-40°C); coldest month, January, average daily temperature 25°C; wettest month, October, 256 mm average rainfall; driest month, January, 8 mm average rainfall

Language

Khmer

Measures

Metric system. Local measures include:

1 tao = 15 kg

1 thang = 40 litres (20-22 kg paddy)

1 hap = 60 kg

1 king (or ray) = 0.16 ha

1 chi = 3.75 g

1 damloeng = 37.5 g

Currency

Riel (CR). Average exchange rate in 2010: CR4,185:US$1

Fiscal year

January 1st-December 31st

Time

7 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (International New Year's Day); January 7th (Liberation Day); February 18th (Meakkha Bochea); March 8th (International Women's Day); April 14th-16th (Cambodia New Year); May 1st (Labour Day); May 13th-15th (King Norodom Sihamoni's birthday); May 17th (Visaka Bochea); May 21st (Royal Ploughing Ceremony); June 18th (king's mother's birthday); September 24th (Constitution Day); September 26th-28th (Pchum Ben); October 29th (King's Coronation Day); October 31st (king's father's birthday); November 9th (Independence Day); November 10th-12th (Water Festival); December 10th (International Human Rights Day)

Political structure

Official name

Cambodia

Form of government

Constitutional monarchy

The executive

The cabinet is constitutionally responsible to the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament)

Head of state

King Norodom Sihamoni. The Throne Council selects the king

National legislature

The 123-seat National Assembly sits for a term of five years. The term of the 61-member Senate (the upper house) is six years

National elections

The most recent National Assembly election was held on July 27th 2008. The inaugural (indirect) election to the Senate took place in 2006. The next upper house election is due in January 2012 and the next lower house election will take place in July 2013

National government

Following the 2008 election, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), which secured 90 seats in the lower house, formed a government, with the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) as its junior partner

Main political organisations and groups

CPP; FUNCINPEC; Sam Rainsy Party (SRP); Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP); Human Rights Party (HRP)

Main government ministers

Prime minister: Hun Sen (CPP)

Deputy prime ministers:

;Sar Kheng (CPP)

;Hor Nam Hong (CPP)

;Bin Chhin (CPP)

;Sok An (CPP)

;Tea Banh (CPP)

;Nhiek Bun Chhay (FUNCINPEC)

;Men Sam An (CPP)

;Keat Chhon (CPP)

;Yim Chhay Ly (CPP)

Key ministers

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries: Chan Sarun (CPP)

Commerce: Cham Prasidh (CPP)

Economy & finance: Keat Chhon (CPP)

Foreign affairs: Hor Nam Hong (CPP)

Health: Mam Bunheng (CPP)

Industry, energy & mines: Suy Sem (CPP)

Information: Khieu Kanharith (CPP)

Interior: Sar Kheng (CPP)

Justice: Ang Vong Vattana (CPP)

National defence: Tea Banh (CPP)

Rural development: Chea Sophara (CPP)

Tourism: Thong Khon (CPP)

Central bank governor

Chea Chanto

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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