The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will remain politically dominant in the forecast period. At the July 2008 general election the CPP tightened its grip on power, winning 90 of the 123 seats in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament). The CPP's electoral victories, coupled with the authoritarian tendencies of the prime minister, Hun Sen, and the ruling party's harsh treatment of its opponents, have increased concerns that Cambodia is becoming a de facto one-party state with few checks on executive power. In recent years the courts have upheld several convictions against prominent opposition figures, such as Sam Rainsy, the leader of the main opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), who has been sentenced in absentia to a total of 12 years in prison. The opposition leader, who on March 15th was stripped of his seat in parliament after losing an appeal at the Supreme Court, has chosen to remain abroad rather than return home to a prison cell.

The state apparatus will continue to be used against the government's opponents. Officials in the capital, Phnom Penh, have outlawed demonstrations except at an officially designated "freedom park" away from government buildings and parliament. A new penal code, which entered into force in December, has tightened restrictions on freedom of expression. Reforms aimed at strengthening governance will be assigned a lower priority than efforts to entrench CPP rule, as seen in early 2010, when the National Assembly approved an anti-corruption law under which an anti-corruption council and other bodies are answerable to the very officials whom they are meant to hold to account. Hun Sen has also ordered leading companies to sponsor units of the armed forces-a move that will make the military even less accountable. Also, a proposed law on non-governmental organisations poses a serious threat to civil society. On April 6th more than 60 international organisations working in Cambodia called on the government to abandon the draft law.

Social tensions will persist during the forecast period. As the economy has recovered from the 2009 recession and the threat of redundancy faced by factory workers has receded, trade unions in the garment sector have grown more assertive, staging a series of strikes over pay. A proposed law on trade unions, which, as it is currently drafted, would impose new restrictions on organised labour, has also elicited strike threats. A recent spike in global commodity prices could raise the cost of living in Cambodia and result in renewed economic hardship. Meanwhile, land grabs by agricultural companies and property developers, often with close links to senior members of the CPP, will continue to drive communities from their homes. The SRP-led opposition will seek to exploit any increase in tensions for its own political ends, but Hun Sen is now so entrenched in power that any electoral challenge to his rule seems set to fail.