After falling by an average of 0.7% in 2009, owing to a contracting economy, rising unemployment and a decline in global commodity prices, we estimate that consumer prices rose by an annual average of 4.1% in 2010. As economic growth recovers and demand-side price pressures re-emerge in 2011, the rate of inflation will accelerate to an average of 6.2% a year. A sharp rise in global commodity prices-notably for oil (dated Brent Blend), which we expect to average US$90/barrel in 2011, up from US$79.6/b in 2010-will also contribute to price pressures this year. So too will the expected weakening of the riel against the US dollar, by raising prices for imported goods and services in local-currency terms. Inflation will remain high in 2012, at 5.7%.