Outlook for 2011-12
Monthly review
The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) will remain politically dominant in the forecast period. At the July 2008 general election the CPP tightened its grip on power, winning 90 of the 123 seats in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament). The CPP's poll victories, coupled with the authoritarian tendencies of the prime minister, Hun Sen, and the ruling party's harsh treatment of its opponents, have increased concerns that Cambodia is becoming a de facto one-party state with few checks on executive power. In recent years the courts have upheld several convictions against prominent opposition figures, such as Sam Rainsy, the leader of the main opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP), who has been sentenced in absentia to a total of 12 years in prison. Sam Rainsy, who returned from a year of self-imposed exile in 2006 after being pardoned for defaming Hun Sen and Prince Norodom Sihanouk, has chosen to remain abroad rather than return home to a prison cell.
The state apparatus will continue to be used against the government's opponents. In October 2009 the lower house approved laws restricting freedom of assembly and expression. The authorities in the capital, Phnom Penh, have since outlawed demonstrations except at an officially designated "freedom park" located some distance from government buildings and parliament. Reforms aimed at improving governance will be assigned a lower priority than efforts to entrench CPP rule, as seen in March 2010, when the lower house approved an anti-corruption law under which an anti-corruption council and other bodies are answerable to the very officials whom they are meant to hold to account. A proposed law on trade unions, as it is currently drafted, would impose new restrictions on organised labour. Meanwhile, Hun Sen has ordered leading companies to sponsor units of the armed forces-a move that will make the military even less accountable.
Social tensions will persist during the forecast period. The economy has begun to recover following the 2009 domestic recession, which saw a collapse in garment exports and tens of thousands of job losses among factory workers. However, as the threat of redundancy has receded amid a recovery in export orders from the US and Europe, trade unions in the garment sector have staged a series of strikes, including a walk-out by tens of thousands of factory workers in mid-September 2010 to demand a rise in the minimum wage. Meanwhile, land grabs by agricultural companies and property developers, often with close links to senior members of the CPP, have driven entire communities from their homes. The SRP-led opposition will seek to exploit such tensions for its own political ends, but Hun Sen is now so entrenched in power that any electoral challenge to his rule seems set to fail.
Hun Sen consolidates power
The prime minister, Hun Sen, is set to continue to consolidate his power by strengthening patronage networks and sidelining political opponents through lawsuits. Hun Sen has also sought to clear out the least loyal and most corrupt members of the armed forces and the police, as highlighted by the recent arrests of two influential officials. On January 17th Moek Dara, formerly the secretary-general of the National Authority for Combating Drugs, was arrested for accepting bribes, and a week earlier Brigadier-General Samith Virak was charged with a series of offences, including forming an armed force illegally and trafficking weapons. Such arrests rarely take place without the backing of the prime minister, and serve the dual purpose of providing Hun Sen with an opportunity to show the public that he is tough on graft, while also scaring officials into at least toning down any corrupt activity. Officials often make money from illegal activities, such as logging, forest encroachment, selling public land, smuggling, extortion, drug dealing and people-trafficking.
The two recent arrests are part of Hun Sen's wider attempts to strengthen his own grip on power. They follow the gradual sidelining of Chea Sim, who is president of Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party as well as president of the Senate (the upper house), as well as the emasculation of royalist politicians, and the undermining of Sam Rainsy and other opposition parliamentarians through a series of lawsuits. The increasingly politicised Cambodian judiciary has played an important role in tightening control over the media and clamping down on dissent. Khmer-language media, both broadcast and print, are dominated by pro-government messages. Meanwhile, journalists and publishers who are critical of the government are subject to intimidation and imprisonment. Human rights officials have also become a target for government ire, with even foreign members of international organisations subject to scathing rebukes from high-ranking officials. The moves against perceived opponents of the government have gained momentum, perhaps owing to rising confidence that Cambodia is increasingly independent, relying on several "benefactors" (most notably China), instead of its previous dependence, first on Vietnam, then on the UN. Criticism of the clampdown seems to have had little effect, and Hun Sen's consolidation of power can be expected to continue.
The result of the next general election, which is due in mid-2013, appears to be a foregone conclusion, with Hun Sen's CPP expected to record another convincing victory. In 2009 the SRP and another opposition party, the Human Rights Party (HRP), led by Kem Sokha, formed an alliance, the Democratic Movement for Change, to contest indirect elections to provincial and district councils. However, the move proved ineffective. A formal merger between the two parties is possible ahead of the next general election. At the 2008 election they won a combined 29 seats in the lower house (26 for the SRP and three for the HRP), a modest improvement on their performance in the 2003 poll. However, their gains came at the expense of the two royalist parties, the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) and the Norodom Ranariddh Party, rather than hurting the CPP. Direct elections to commune councils that are to be held in early 2012 may provide an early indication of the likely scale of the CPP's victory at the 2013 general election.
Relations between Cambodia and Thailand remain problematic. The Thai authorities continue to suspect Hun Sen of supporting a self-exiled former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the dispute over the territory surrounding the Preah Vihear temple on the Cambodian-Thai border has yet to be resolved. Small-scale crossborder skirmishes thus remain a risk. The two countries also have yet to resolve the disputed sovereignty of resource-rich maritime areas in the Gulf of Thailand.
Rivalry between China and the US for influence in Cambodia is set to intensify in 2011-12. China has become an important partner for Hun Sen's government. It recently cancelled Cambodia's debt repayments falling due in 2010, in a move worth US$4.2m, as well as financing large-scale infrastructure projects. Unlike US assistance, which is typically conditional on greater respect for human rights, China's assistance has come without such strings attached. Cambodia's relations with Vietnam will be close while Hun Sen remains in power.
As economic growth accelerates in 2011-12, the government will begin to withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus that it introduced in response to the 2008-09 global recession. However, fiscal policy will remain broadly expansionary. According to the 2011 budget, which was approved by the National Assembly in November 2010, government expenditure in US dollar terms is set to rise by around 20% from its 2010 level, to US$2.4bn. As inflationary pressures return, the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC, the central bank) will seek to restrain growth in the money supply, but the effectiveness of monetary policy will be hampered by the fact that the economy is highly dollarised. The 2008-09 global recession exposed Cambodia's structural economic vulnerabilities, notably a dependence on garment exports to the US and Europe, and Hun Sen's government has responded by seeking to develop other sources of economic growth, particularly in the agricultural sector. As part of its plans to become a major rice exporter, the government has set a target of raising rice exports to 1m tonnes by 2015, from around 850,000 tonnes in 2009.
Despite an improvement in tax collection and plans to impose a new tax on properties valued over CR100m (US$24,000), government revenue will remain low relative to GDP in the forecast period. The government will therefore continue to depend on foreign grants and loans to finance its deficit, which the Economist Intelligence Unit estimates at an average of 5.7% of GDP in 2010. At a meeting in June the country's donors, known collectively as the Cambodia Development Co-operation Forum, pledged to provide US$1.1bn in assistance in 2010, up from US$951.5m in 2009. However, donor support is set to fall to US$958m in 2011 and US$751m in 2012. The government had hoped that oil production from fields in the Gulf of Thailand would provide new revenue in the form of taxes and royalties, but oil is now not expected to begin flowing until at least 2012. Weak revenue growth, combined with rises in expenditure (especially on defence and wages), will ensure that the budget remains in the red. The government does not issue Treasury bills or other securities, and it would therefore meet any financing shortfall by drawing on its deposits at the NBC, which stood at CR2.1trn (US$500m) in October 2010, down by 30.3% from a high of CR3trn in April 2009.
The effectiveness of monetary policy will remain limited, owing to extensive dollarisation of the economy. The NBC will begin to tighten monetary policy in 2011, but the authorities do not appear to be in a rush to raise the banking sector's reserve requirement, which currently stands at 12%. Money supply growth is accelerating again, with broad money (M2) expanding by an average of 33.4% year on year in the first nine months of 2010, up from a low of 0.5% growth in February 2009. Bank lending has followed a similar pattern, with claims on the private sector rising by 13.7% year on year in January-September 2010, up from a low of 2.8% in October 2009. However, with year-on-year growth in bank lending to the private sector still far below the highs of over 100% that were recorded in early 2008, it will be some time before the reserve requirement is returned to its pre-crisis peak of 16%.
International assumptions summary | ||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Real GDP growth | ||||
World | -0.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
OECD | -3.5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
China | 9.1 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
EU27 | -4.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Exchange rates | ||||
¥:US$ | 93.7 | 88.0 | 82.4 | 82.4 |
US$:€ | 1.393 | 1.326 | 1.250 | 1.200 |
SDR:US$ | 0.646 | 0.652 | 0.660 | 0.670 |
Financial indicators | ||||
€ 3-month interbank rate | 1.23 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
US$ 3-month Libor | 0.69 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
Commodity prices | ||||
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 61.9 | 79.6 | 90.0 | 82.3 |
Gold (US$/troy oz) | 973.0 | 1,224.7 | 1,331.3 | 1,232.5 |
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms) | -20.4 | 11.7 | 19.3 | -8.6 |
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms) | -25.6 | 43.8 | 7.2 | -2.8 |
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates. |
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Cambodia's economy is recovering, but annual growth will not return to the highs of around 10% seen in the years preceding the 2008-09 global recession. Although the government has conceded that growth slowed in 2009, Hun Sen has said that the economy avoided a contraction in the year as a whole, expanding by 0.1%. This claim is contradicted by the double-digit declines recorded in 2009 in merchandise exports and approved investment, among other indicators. We estimate real GDP growth in 2010 at just 4.1% a year. The economy is forecast to expand by 5.1% in 2011 and by 6.3% in 2012. The garment sector remains particularly exposed to the US economy, which is Cambodia's main export market, accounting for almost one-half of its export earnings. Garment sector-led economic growth will remain fragile, with global growth expected to slow again in 2011, but garment shipments to Europe may improve following a recent change to the Everything But Arms initiative, a 2001 agreement that provides the world's least developed countries with duty- and quota-free access to the EU's 27 member states. We estimate that growth in construction resumed in 2010, but at least two major property projects in Phnom Penh have been suspended recently, suggesting that the sector is some way from returning to pre-crisis levels of activity. Agriculture will become an increasingly important source of growth, while the tourism sector will attract more visitors in the forecast period.
After falling by an average of 0.7% in 2009, owing to a contracting economy, rising unemployment and a decline in global commodity prices, we estimate that consumer prices rose by an annual average of 4.1% in 2010. As economic growth recovers and demand-side price pressures re-emerge in 2011, the rate of inflation will accelerate to an average of 6.2% a year. A sharp rise in global commodity prices-notably for oil (dated Brent Blend), which we expect to average US$90/barrel in 2011, up from US$79.6/b in 2010-will also contribute to price pressures this year. So too will the expected weakening of the riel against the US dollar, by raising prices for imported goods and services in local-currency terms. Inflation will remain high in 2012, at 5.7%.
Although the riel regained some ground against the US dollar towards the end of 2010, the currency depreciated by 1.3% on an annual average basis. The riel will generally remain under downward pressure in 2011-12, owing to the persistence of a large deficit on the current account. The NBC will intervene periodically to support the currency by selling foreign-exchange reserves, but this will do no more than slow the riel's rate of depreciation, and we expect the currency to weaken by an average of 0.6% a year during the next two years. Given the continuing lack of confidence in the riel, the US dollar will remain the currency of choice in Cambodia for trade and investment.
The merchandise trade deficit will remain substantial in the forecast period, owing to Cambodia's reliance on imported capital goods. Even after economic growth recovers in the US, Cambodia's leading export market, garment manufacturers will struggle to compete with more efficient producers. Although export growth will accelerate in volume terms in 2011-12, a deterioration in the terms of trade, mainly owing to a sharp fall in cotton prices, means that growth in the value of exports will slow in 2012. The services surplus will grow in the forecast period as tourism recovers, following a drop in the number of high-spending visitors to the country in 2009. However, there will be an increase in demand for imported trade-related services, such as insurance and freight. The income deficit will narrow during the forecast period, owing to increased returns on Cambodia's holdings of foreign reserves. After expanding to an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2010, we expect the current-account deficit to narrow to 7.7% of GDP in 2011, before widening to 8.3% of GDP in 2012.
Forecast summary | ||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
2009a | 2010b | 2011c | 2012c | |
Real GDP growth | -1.5b | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 3.0b | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | -0.7 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 5.7 |
Base lending rate | 15.8 | 15.6 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
Central government balance (% of GDP) | -8.1b | -5.7 | -5.2 | -5.0 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | -5.9 | -7.3 | -8.3 | -9.2 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.2 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -8.3b | -8.5 | -7.7 | -8.3 |
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av) | 4,139 | 4,194 | 4,204 | 4,246 |
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period) | 4,165 | 4,080 | 4,273 | 4,222 |
Exchange rate CR:¥100 (av) | 4,417 | 4,767 | 5,101 | 5,153 |
Exchange rate CR:€ (end-period) | 5,969 | 5,467 | 5,127 | 5,024 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. |
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A smouldering border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand again flared in late December 2010, when Cambodia detained seven Thais, including a Thai member of parliament for the governing Democrat Party, Panich Wikitsreth, and Veera Somkwamkid, a leader of the Thailand Patriot Network (an offshoot of the royalist-nationalist yellow-shirted protest movement, the People's Alliance for Democracy, or PAD). A Cambodian military unit stationed at the border detained the seven Thais for illegally entering Cambodian territory in the north-western province of Banteay Meanchey. They were transferred to the notorious Prey Sar jail in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh. The new row represents a setback. The two neighbours had pulled soldiers out from the disputed territory surrounding the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple on December 1st in a bid to ease border tensions, in a move that signalled the gradual winding down of a tense stand-off that has claimed lives on both sides.
On December 30th the Phnom Penh Municipal Court charged the Thais with illegal entry and trespassing on a military base along the border, crimes carrying potential prison terms of six months and one year respectively. On the same day Thailand's prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, insisted that the seven had "meant no harm", while Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs sought bail for them. Abhisit said during his weekly television broadcast that the group had not intentionally trespassed on Cambodian territory. However, on January 10th Cambodia' prime minister, Hun Sen, warned that no one would be allowed to intervene in the case. His remarks followed rumours that a former Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, might try to mediate. On January 13th two of the Thais, including Panich, were allowed bail for "health reasons". A bail hearing on January 18th resulted in the release of four more of the detainees, although Veera remained in detention. He faces an additional espionage charge for attempting to gather information that could jeopardise national defence, an offence punishable by up to ten years in jail.
Prince Norodom Ranariddh, a former prime minister and a half-brother of the king, Norodom Sihamoni, has emerged from a two-year retirement to retake the helm of his Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP). On December 12th Prince Ranariddh, who is chief adviser to the king, said that he was making a political comeback because the NRP was in disarray. There are clear signs that the royalists are indeed a spent force, with Prince Ranariddh squandering much of the public support for royalists inherited from his father, the previous monarch, Norodom Sihanouk. Prince Ranariddh announced his retirement from politics in October 2008 after a dismal performance in the general election held in that year, when the NRP won a mere two seats in the 123-member National Assembly (the lower house of parliament).
Once a powerful politician, Prince Ranariddh was declared joint prime minister with Hun Sen following the 1993 election, when he won a majority of votes. In 1997 he was ousted in a military coup, leaving Hun Sen in sole charge. Prince Ranariddh later returned to Cambodia, but his former party, the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC), steadily declined in importance, with many of its members either defecting to or falling under the influence of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP). Prince Ranariddh was eventually voted out as chairman of FUNCINPEC in 2006, prompting him to found a political party bearing his own name-a tactic also used by the opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, and a move generally regarded as an attempt to avoid being ousted as party head by political scheming.
The IMF has warned that Cambodia's narrow export base might be a weakness given the fragility of the global economic recovery. Cambodia is heavily reliant on the US and European markets (garment exports to these destinations account for around 40% of total goods and services exports), exposing the kingdom to significant downside risks, the Fund warned in a report following recent Article IV consultations with the government. The IMF's claims were backed up by Ministry of Commerce data released in early January showing that Cambodia's garment and textile exports are destined overwhelmingly for the US and the EU, despite growth in other markets. During the first 11 months of 2010 garment exports rose by 20.2% year on year to US$2.8bn, with shipments to the US, the EU and other foreign markets increasing by 16.7% (to US$1.6bn), 18.5% (to US$703m) and 34% (to US$444m) respectively. Garment exports in 2010 as a whole are unlikely to top the total of US$3.2bn earned in 2008. Despite duty- and quota-free access to the EU, a labour strike in September 2010, high overheads, poor infrastructure and stiff competition from other garment manufacturers such as Bangladesh are casting a shadow over Cambodia's long-term garment prospects.
In addition to issuing a warning over the narrow export base, the IMF said that limited fiscal space and the weaknesses of the financial system reduced the resilience of Cambodia's economy. The Fund raised its concerns about the fact that low fiscal revenue limited Cambodia's ability to address priority development needs, while a shallow and highly dollarised financial system undercut broad-based growth and complicated macroeconomic management. It encouraged the government to continue to improve tax collection, claiming that taxation was the best route to fiscal sustainability, and to mobilise resources for development. It also recommended increasing incentives to use the riel in place of the US dollar, describing de-dollarisation as a critical step towards monetary independence. The IMF expects Cambodia's real GDP growth to accelerate gradually to 6-7% over the medium term. The Fund said that growth and exports had remained narrowly based, offering limited benefits to the rural poor that make up the vast majority of Cambodia's population, and claimed that indications suggested that poverty had increased in 2010 after several years of steady declines.
In late December the Cambodian government announced that a new national property tax would be imposed in early 2011. The annual tax will be set at 0.1% of the value of all real estate, including land, houses, apartments and any other buildings. Under the Finance for Management Law, passed in November 2009, the tax will be imposed on properties valued at over CR100m (US$24,000) by an evaluation committee. The new property tax is likely to be payable on an estimated 180,000 urban properties and should generate US$3m-4m in revenue each year, according to Ministry of Economy and Finance estimates.
The new property levy is part of wider plans to implement new taxes and enforce payment of existing taxes to boost revenue and cover increasing expenditure. The property tax alone will make little difference to the overall budget, but it is a step towards making taxation acceptable for Cambodians who have previously paid very little official tax. However, given that there are relatively few property transactions in Cambodia and that there is not much agreement over the value of real estate, not to mention widespread corruption, transparently setting and collecting reasonable property taxes may prove difficult. Real estate in Phnom Penh is thought to have lost in excess of 40% of its value since it peaked in 2008-09.
Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have played an important role in Cambodia's development since the early 1990s. Yet despite their significant contribution to food security, health and education, NGOs have operated without clear oversight or guidance. Given the recent friction between human rights NGOs and the government, the first draft of a new NGO law released in December 2010 was surprisingly mild, mainly providing a clear foundation for organisations that had previously been hampered by overlapping government jurisdictions and unclear regulations. However, aspects of the draft law are controversial.
The new law will put NGOs under the authority of the Ministry of the Interior, but, according to the draft, the registration fee will be determined by an Inter-Ministerial Proclamation signed by the minister of interior and the minister of economy and finance. A requirement that foreign NGOs must not let spending on administration exceed 25% of their total budget may be well received by critics of wasteful organisations. But projects sometimes necessitate complex administration, and some organisations claim that they are forced to make unofficial "facilitation payments", most of which are defined as "administrative".
Another loosely worded requirement stipulates that NGOs should employ Cambodian members of staff or workers "to the maximum extent possible", and that the number of staff should be "proportionate to the plan[ned] project or programmes". Experience suggests that some unscrupulous officials may use such conditions to extract unofficial fines. In addition, the economy and finance ministry and the National Audit Authority may "examine the financial status reports and properties" of NGOs. It should also be noted that NGO staff must disclose their assets under the Anti-Corruption Law, a measure that has been widely interpreted as being in retaliation for some organisations' criticism of the Cambodian government.
In December the firm behind plans for a new US$1bn international airport in Siem Reap, NSRIA, released a statement providing further details of the venture. According to the company (a Cambodian joint venture whose main investors are two South Korean companies, Lees A&A and Camko Airport), the airport is set to become the biggest such facility in Cambodia if completed as planned. The new airport for the northern tourist hub, home to the famed temples of Angkor, will be around 40 km east of Angkor and will be big enough to accommodate large aircraft, such as Boeing 747s, thus allowing direct flights to arrive from Europe and North America. The development will include an adjacent special economic zone, a dry port and a 40-sq-km city. NSRIA has stated that construction should begin this year and should be completed in five and a half years.
The project's investors are hoping to capitalise on increasing tourist numbers and foreign investment. But there are doubts over whether the development is too large: the airport will have a capacity of 15m passengers annually, but the Ministry of Tourism forecasts that there will be just 2.7m visitors in 2011, many of whom will arrive by land. These fears may be heightened by the fact that high-profile South Korean-backed real estate projects in Phnom Penh have stalled recently in the wake of falling property prices, a shortage of credit and little interest from buyers, leaving questions over the quality of planning and market research undertaken by NSRIA.
Cambodia's nascent automotive industry may leap forward into hybrid electric vehicle manufacturing with the establishment of a car factory by a local company, Heng Development. A joint venture with a German firm will see construction begin in February on a 20-ha plot that is located 20 km south of Phnom Penh. (Heng Development, which currently deals in tractors, cement and land, has declined to name its German partner until the official launch.) Heng Development has stated that the factory will be finished in six months, and will have around 300 workers producing up to 1,000 plug-in electric hybrid vehicles in the first year, using parts imported from Germany, Japan and Hong Kong. Two "mini-passenger-car" models, a two-seater and a four-seater, will be produced that are to be sold in Cambodia as well as being exported.
A local maker of hand-built, "eccentric" miniature cars, Nhean Pholet, has been employed by Heng Development. Nhean Pholet said that the company's car models would be similar to those that he had previously produced in a small Phnom Penh workshop from an assortment of spare parts. The first cars are expected to go on sale in 2012 and will be priced from around US$5,000 in Cambodia, a competitive price given that even second-hand models in mediocre condition command a high local value. Heng Development claimed that "partners" have already ordered around 1,000 vehicles. However, Nhean Pholet's ad hoc technology may not scale up well, and there could be problems with the manufacture of complicated hybrid vehicles, given the lack of an automotive industry in Cambodia.
2006a | 2007a | 2008a | 2009b | 2010b | 2011c | 2012c | |
GDP | |||||||
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) | 7.3 | 8.6 | 11.0b | 10.4 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 15.0 |
Nominal GDP (CR bn) | 29,849 | 35,002 | 44,717b | 43,244 | 50,728 | 58,491 | 63,831 |
Real GDP growth (%) | 10.8 | 10.2 | 5.0b | -1.5 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 |
Expenditure on GDP (% real change) | |||||||
Private consumption | 6.8 | 6.2 | 7.1b | -1.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
Government consumption | 1.7 | 19.5 | 2.5b | 28.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
Gross fixed investment | 16.7 | 10.1 | 19.9b | -12.6 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 9.5 |
Exports of goods & services | 19.2 | 10.1 | 3.7b | -13.3 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 9.2 |
Imports of goods & services | 16.0 | 12.1 | 5.7b | -11.8 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 |
Origin of GDP (% real change) | |||||||
Agriculture | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.0b | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 |
Industry | 18.3 | 8.4 | 8.0b | -6.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 |
Services | 10.1 | 10.1 | 4.9b | -0.9 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.9 |
Population and income | |||||||
Population (m) | 14.1 | 14.3 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.6 |
GDP per head (US$ at PPP) | 1,635b | 1,825b | 1,926b | 1,882 | 1,937 | 2,031 | 2,171 |
Fiscal indicators (% of GDP) | |||||||
Central government revenue | 11.5 | 11.9 | 12.0b | 11.5 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 13.0 |
Central government expenditure | 14.2 | 14.8 | 14.8b | 19.6 | 18.6 | 17.9 | 18.0 |
Central government balance | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.8b | -8.1 | -5.7 | -5.2 | -5.0 |
Prices and financial indicators | |||||||
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period) | 4,057 | 3,999 | 4,077 | 4,165a | 4,080 | 4,273 | 4,222 |
Exchange rate CR:¥ (end-period) | 34.09 | 35.80 | 44.91 | 44.75a | 49.51 | 51.58 | 51.94 |
Consumer prices (end-period; %) | 4.2 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.3a | 4.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
Stock of money M1 (% change) | 26.4 | 23.6 | 16.9 | 29.5a | -2.1 | 10.3 | 10.6 |
Stock of money M2 (% change) | 40.5 | 61.8 | 5.4 | 35.6a | 15.5 | 32.3 | 22.6 |
Lending interest rate (av; %) | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.0 | 15.8a | 15.6 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
Current account (US$ m) | |||||||
Trade balance | -1,079 | -1,351 | -1,800 | -1,574a | -1,860 | -2,094 | -2,498 |
Goods: exports fob | 3,692 | 4,089 | 4,708 | 4,302a | 5,448 | 6,238 | 6,743 |
Goods: imports fob | -4,771 | -5,439 | -6,509 | -5,876a | -7,307 | -8,333 | -9,242 |
Services balance | 492 | 632 | 609 | 603a | 650 | 733 | 855 |
Income balance | -306 | -364 | -475 | -468a | -482 | -475 | -423 |
Current transfers balance | 630 | 595 | 615 | 574a | 665 | 765 | 826 |
Current-account balance | -262 | -488 | -1,051 | -866a | -1,026 | -1,071 | -1,241 |
External debt (US$ m) | |||||||
Debt stock | 3,527 | 3,761 | 4,215 | 4,284 | 4,395 | 4,468 | 4,571 |
Debt service paid | 114.2 | 30.2 | 42.1 | 29.6 | 30.4 | 31.2 | 31.7 |
Principal repayments | 98.9 | 12.6 | 19.4 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.8 |
Interest | 15.3 | 17.6 | 22.7 | 16.9 | 17.1 | 17.6 | 17.9 |
Debt service due | 136.9 | 66.6 | 129.3 | 55.6 | 56.4 | 58.2 | 58.7 |
International reserves (US$ m) | |||||||
Total international reserves | 1,411 | 2,143 | 2,641 | 3,288a | 3,860 | 4,315 | 4,907 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. | |||||||
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics. |
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2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||
4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | |
Prices | ||||||||
Consumer prices (2000=100) | 143.1 | 136.2 | 140.4 | 145.6 | 145.4 | 145.6 | 146.2 | 148.2 |
Consumer prices (% change, year on year) | 17.8 | 4.3 | -4.8 | -3.1 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
Financial indicators | ||||||||
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av) | 4,086 | 4,108 | 4,123 | 4,162 | 4,164 | 4,176 | 4,204 | 4,232 |
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period) | 4,077 | 4,089 | 4,160 | 4,172 | 4,165 | 4,182 | 4,222 | 4,227 |
Deposit rate (av; %) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Lending rate (av; %) | 16.0 | 16.2 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
M1 (end-period; CR bn) | 2,388 | 2,538 | 2,701 | 2,774 | 3,093 | 3,132 | 3,064 | 3,037 |
M1 (% change, year on year) | 16.9 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 18.9 | 29.5 | 23.4 | 13.4 | 9.5 |
M2 (end-period; CR bn) | 11,902 | 12,562 | 14,490 | 14,932 | 16,137 | 17,268 | 18,330 | 18,980 |
M2 (% change, year on year) | 5.4 | 5.2 | 15.9 | 18.9 | 35.6 | 37.5 | 26.5 | 27.1 |
Foreign trade and payments (US$ m) | ||||||||
Exports fob | 1,039.7 | 1,264.1 | 1,098.1 | 902.0 | 1,037.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Imports fob | -1,315.4 | -1,514.7 | -1,616.8 | -1,431.3 | -1,313.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Merchandise trade balance fob-fob | -275.7 | -250.6 | -518.7 | -529.3 | -275.4 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Services balance | 177.7 | 196.3 | 102.9 | 131.0 | 172.3 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Income balance | -122.0 | -104.9 | -96.5 | -140.7 | -126.2 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Net transfer payments | 152.4 | 154.3 | 135.3 | 150.0 | 134.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Current-account balance | -67.6 | -4.9 | -377.0 | -389.0 | -94.7 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Reserves excl gold (end-period) | 2,291.6 | 2,350.6 | 2,624.1 | 2,813.5 | 2,851.1 | 2,993.7 | 3,129.4 | 3,166.1 |
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics. |
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Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
Exchange rate CR:US$ (av) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 3,993 | 3,990 | 3,991 | 3,996 | 4,003 | 4,078 | 4,123 | 4,104 | 4,114 | 4,114 | 4,091 | 4,053 |
2009 | 4,098 | 4,118 | 4,108 | 4,098 | 4,126 | 4,146 | 4,181 | 4,149 | 4,156 | 4,167 | 4,165 | 4,160 |
2010 | 4,165 | 4,182 | 4,182 | 4,186 | 4,205 | 4,221 | 4,233 | 4,235 | 4,229 | 4,224 | n/a | n/a |
Exchange rate CR:US$ (end-period) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 3,996 | 3,991 | 3,995 | 3,997 | 4,022 | 4,092 | 4,107 | 4,107 | 4,112 | 4,110 | 4,066 | 4,077 |
2009 | 4,112 | 4,122 | 4,089 | 4,117 | 4,137 | 4,160 | 4,187 | 4,142 | 4,172 | 4,170 | 4,159 | 4,165 |
2010 | 4,167 | 4,183 | 4,182 | 4,200 | 4,215 | 4,222 | 4,237 | 4,235 | 4,227 | 4,222 | n/a | n/a |
Deposit rate (av; %) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
2009 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
2010 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.20 | n/a | n/a |
Lending rate (av; %) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 16.16 | 15.91 | 15.86 | 15.88 | 15.95 | 15.96 | 15.96 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 16.20 | 15.96 | 15.93 |
2009 | 16.60 | 15.90 | 15.95 | 15.73 | 15.73 | 15.75 | 15.99 | 15.97 | 15.45 | 15.45 | 15.64 | 15.58 |
2010 | 15.64 | 15.62 | 15.61 | 15.60 | 15.54 | 15.54 | 15.58 | 15.58 | 15.58 | 15.57 | n/a | n/a |
Money supply M1 (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 28.6 | 29.6 | 33.3 | 41.8 | 38.8 | 40.4 | 44.3 | 36.5 | 35.0 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 16.9 |
2009 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 15.3 | 18.9 | 27.9 | 36.2 | 29.5 |
2010 | 27.3 | 26.2 | 23.4 | 23.8 | 20.0 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 9.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Money supply M2 (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 60.5 | 58.5 | 56.1 | 59.0 | 54.8 | 40.6 | 36.9 | 32.5 | 26.9 | 19.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
2009 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 15.9 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 18.9 | 29.4 | 35.5 | 35.6 |
2010 | 35.3 | 40.2 | 37.5 | 37.0 | 36.4 | 26.5 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 27.1 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 16.8 | 18.2 | 26.8 | 32.1 | 35.6 | 32.4 | 30.6 | 29.2 | 26.4 | 22.4 | 18.4 | 12.5 |
2009 | 8.0 | 6.2 | -0.7 | -3.9 | -5.7 | -4.9 | -3.9 | -2.9 | -2.3 | -1.6 | 1.3 | 5.3 |
2010 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.7 | n/a | n/a |
Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m) | ||||||||||||
2008 | 2,050 | 2,044 | 2,055 | 2,194 | 2,267 | 2,262 | 2,237 | 2,429 | 2,366 | 2,221 | 2,256 | 2,292 |
2009 | 2,289 | 2,295 | 2,351 | 2,495 | 2,594 | 2,624 | 2,696 | 2,760 | 2,813 | 2,852 | 2,850 | 2,851 |
2010 | 2,899 | 2,938 | 2,994 | 3,095 | 3,109 | 3,129 | 3,167 | 3,178 | 3,166 | 3,192 | n/a | n/a |
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Haver Analytics. |
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Please see graphic below
Land area
181,035 sq km
Population
14.4m (IMF estimate for mid-2007)
Main towns
Population in '000 (1998 census)
Phnom Penh (capital): 999.8
Battambang: 793.1
Climate
Tropical; rainy season, May-October; dry season, November-April
Weather in Phnom Penh (39 ft above sea level)
Hottest months, March-April, average daily temperature 27°C (daily maximum 32-40°C); coldest month, January, average daily temperature 25°C; wettest month, October, 256 mm average rainfall; driest month, January, 8 mm average rainfall
Language
Khmer
Measures
Metric system. Local measures include:
1 tao = 15 kg
1 thang = 40 litres (20-22 kg paddy)
1 hap = 60 kg
1 king (or ray) = 0.16 ha
1 chi = 3.75 g
1 damloeng = 37.5 g
Currency
Riel (CR). Average exchange rate in 2009: CR4,139:US$1
Fiscal year
January 1st-December 31st
Time
7 hours ahead of GMT
Public holidays
January 1st (International New Year's Day); January 7th (Liberation Day); February 18th (Meakkha Bochea); March 8th (International Women's Day); April 14th-16th (Cambodia New Year); May 1st (Labour Day); May 13th-15th (King Norodom Sihamoni's birthday); May 17th (Visaka Bochea); May 21st (Royal Ploughing Ceremony); June 18th (king's mother's birthday); September 24th (Constitution Day); September 26th-28th (Pchum Ben); October 29th (King's Coronation Day); October 31st (king's father's birthday); November 9th (Independence Day); November 10th-12th (Water Festival); December 10th (International Human Rights Day)
Official name
Cambodia
Form of government
Constitutional monarchy
The executive
The cabinet is constitutionally responsible to the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament)
Head of state
King Norodom Sihamoni. The Throne Council selects the king
National legislature
The 123-seat National Assembly sits for a term of five years. The term of the 61-member Senate (the upper house) is also five years
National elections
The most recent National Assembly election was held on July 27th 2008. The inaugural (indirect) election to the Senate took place in 2006. The next upper house election is due in January 2011 and the next lower house election will take place in July 2013
National government
Following the 2008 election, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), which secured 90 seats in the lower house, formed a government, with the National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Co-operative Cambodia (FUNCINPEC) as its junior partner
Main political organisations and groups
CPP; FUNCINPEC; Sam Rainsy Party (SRP); Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP); Human Rights Party (HRP)
Main government ministers
Prime minister: Hun Sen (CPP)
Deputy prime ministers:
;Sar Kheng (CPP)
;Hor Nam Hong (CPP)
;Bin Chhin (CPP)
;Sok An (CPP)
;Tea Banh (CPP)
;Nhiek Bun Chhay (FUNCINPEC)
;Men Sam An (CPP)
;Keat Chhon (CPP)
;Yim Chhay Ly (CPP)
Key ministers
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries: Chan Sarun (CPP)
Commerce: Cham Prasidh (CPP)
Economy & finance: Keat Chhon (CPP)
Foreign affairs: Hor Nam Hong (CPP)
Health: Mam Bunheng (CPP)
Industry, energy & mines: Suy Sem (CPP)
Information: Khieu Kanharith (CPP)
Interior: Sar Kheng (CPP)
Justice: Ang Vong Vattana (CPP)
National defence: Tea Banh (CPP)
Rural development: Chea Sophara (CPP)
Tourism: Thong Khon (CPP)
Central bank governor
Chea Chanto