World prices for oil are expected to remain at around current levels over the forecast period but oil production will continue to fall in 2011. Overall, goods exports are expected to increase by only 3.6% in 2011, driven by agricultural and manufacturing exports. Exports will improve further in 2012, by 6.1%, as new oil production comes on stream. Increasing public capital investment and private inflows in the energy and mining sectors will stimulate import volumes over the period, and the trade balance will remain in deficit over the forecast period.

As international trade increases, the services deficit will increase to 2.2% of GDP in 2011-12 to pay for transport of goods. The income deficit will also creep up over the forecast period, to an average of 1.6% of GDP, in line with profit repatriation by foreign firms. Inflows of donor funds and a small increase in remittances will help to maintain the surplus on the current transfers account at an equivalent of 2.2% of GDP on average in 2011-12. Driven by trends in the trade account, the current-account deficit is forecast to widen in 2011, to 4.5% of GDP, before narrowing to 3.8% of GDP in 2012.