Outlook for 2011-12

• The Economist Intelligence Unit's core forecast is that the president, Paul Biya, will stand in and win re-election in 2011, in view of his dominance of the political scene and the lack of credible opposition.
• Mr Biya's party, Rassemblement démocratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC), is expected to follow suit in the legislative election scheduled for 2012 and to further consolidate its overwhelming majority in parliament.
• Rivalries between ethnic groups and regions, spikes in the cost of living, and a chronic lack of jobs, social welfare and services will increasingly manifest in outbursts of popular unrest in advance of the presidential election.
• Increased economic activity will support the fiscal position, but the government will struggle to control spending during a presidential election year. We forecast a fiscal deficit equivalent to 2.4% of GDP in 2011-12.
• Investment and increased mining output will raise real GDP growth to 3% in 2011 and further, to 4.3%, in 2012.
• The current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 3.7% of GDP in 2010 to 4.5% of GDP in 2011 owing to falling oil production, before narrowing to 3.8% of GDP in 2012 as oil production recovers.

Monthly review

• The president paid a visit to the opposition-dominated anglophone North West region in December-his first trip to the region in nearly 20 years-to gather support in advance of the 2011 presidential election.
• During Mr Biya's trip to North West region and in his New Year's address he announced a raft of populist promises, including free malaria vaccination for under-fives and the building of an English-language university in Bamenda.
• Mr Biya has announced reforms to the security services, in order to placate junior officers, who have limited opportunities for advancement.
• The long-awaited Treasury-bond issuance on the Douala Stock Exchange was concluded in December and raised over CFAfr200bn (US$409m), which will finance the government's share of several infrastructure projects.
• A recent report from the Groupement inter-patronal du Cameroun (Gicam), Cameroon's main private-sector association, indicates that GDP growth in 2010, estimated at 2.6%, fell below the government's projections.
• Inflation remained subdued, falling to 1.1% at mid-year.
• Figures from the National Institute of Statistics indicate that Cameroon's trade balance worsened further during the first half of 2010, with the country having recorded its first trade deficit during 2009.