The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), which has governed Namibia since independence in 1990, will dominate the political scene throughout the forecast period. SWAPO's central committee confirmed in mid-March that whoever is the party's vice-president will automatically be its candidate at the November 2014 presidential election, avoiding a repeat of the fractious presidential candidacy contest of 2004. The vice-presidency will be up for election at SWAPO's "elective congress" in 2012. Hage Geingob, SWAPO's current vice-president and the minister of trade and industry, who wants to be the next head of state, would be in trouble if the party's dominant Nujomaist faction, loyal to Namibia's first head of state, Sam Nujoma, decided to back a challenger-most likely to be SWAPO's secretary-general, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana. The minister of regional government, Jerry Ekandjo, also has presidential ambitions, although his uncritical support for Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, makes him unacceptable to many.

The opposition seems determined to pursue its legal case to have the official results of the 2009 National Assembly election declared null and void, despite the dismissal of their application by the High Court in the capital, Windhoek, in February. The nine parties backing the application are to appeal to the Supreme Court, which they believe will rule in their favour after considering evidence that the High Court was unwilling to do so.