Outlook for 2011-12
Monthly review
The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), which has governed Namibia since independence in 1990, will dominate the political scene throughout the forecast period. SWAPO's central committee confirmed in mid-March that whoever is the party's vice-president will automatically be its candidate at the November 2014 presidential election, avoiding a repeat of the fractious presidential candidacy contest of 2004. The vice-presidency will be up for election at SWAPO's "elective congress" in 2012. Hage Geingob, SWAPO's current vice-president and the minister of trade and industry, who wants to be the next head of state, would be in trouble if the party's dominant Nujomaist faction, loyal to Namibia's first head of state, Sam Nujoma, decided to back a challenger-most likely to be SWAPO's secretary-general, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana. The minister of regional government, Jerry Ekandjo, also has presidential ambitions, although his uncritical support for Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, makes him unacceptable to many.
The opposition seems determined to pursue its legal case to have the official results of the 2009 National Assembly election declared null and void, despite the dismissal of their application by the High Court in the capital, Windhoek, in February. The nine parties backing the application are to appeal to the Supreme Court, which they believe will rule in their favour after considering evidence that the High Court was unwilling to do so.
SWAPO retained control of most authorities in the regional and local elections in November 2010, although voter turnout was 38%-the lowest-ever level in nationwide elections. Opposition disunity is a factor in SWAPO's continued ability to win decisive election victories; the largest opposition party, the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), refused to agree a pact with any party other than the Republican Party. Now that the RDP has found that it cannot make significant progress by itself, the prospects for an electoral pact-to contest the next national elections in November 2014-may have improved.
There are no external threats to Namibia. Relations with South Africa will remain strong and Namibia's small economy will continue to be linked closely with that of its southern neighbour. Relations with Western trading partners are generally good, and the government's reservations about signing an economic partnership agreement with the EU may soon be resolved, as both Namibia and South Africa have agreed to resume talks on the issue. Political and economic links with China, India and Russia are expanding, as all three are keen to gain access to Namibia's natural resources.
The Namibian economy, particularly the mining sector, recovered strongly in 2010, boosted by the resumption of global demand for commodities and higher prices. It had been thought that, in consequence, the stimulus measures pursued by the government since 2009-lower interest rates and increased government spending-would be reined back during the outlook period. However, although the Bank of Namibia (BoN), the central bank, may begin to tighten monetary policy later this year, the budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March) has intensified the expansionary fiscal policy in order to create jobs and reduce the estimated 51% unemployment rate. If government revenue in 2011/12 and 2012/13 fails to rise in line with projections, the government risks running an unsustainably high budget deficit, which, coupled with substantially larger domestic debt, could force spending cuts and a tighter monetary policy stance. This would have a negative impact on otherwise positive growth prospects. Provided that the accident at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant does not affect the planned global expansion of nuclear power capacity too seriously, substantially increased uranium production from both new and existing mines will be the main generator of growth. Other policy goals include reducing both poverty and Namibia's vast income inequality.
The budget for 2011/12, including supplementary spending for public-sector pay increases announced on April 12th, projects expenditure of N$38.5bn (US$5.1bn), 39% higher than estimated in 2010/11, with the main purpose of lowering unemployment. By focusing spending on four sectors (agriculture, transport, tourism, and housing and sanitation), the government hopes to create or save 104,000 jobs during the next three years-the period covered by the new medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF). Current spending is projected to increase by 28%, but development spending is set to rise by 55%. In the latest five years for which actual figures are available (to 2009/10) the development budget has been underspent by an average of 15%. The Economist Intelligence Unit therefore believes it unlikely that the 2011/12 development budget will be executed in full, particularly given the sharp year-on-year increase. The budget estimate for revenue in 2011/12 is N$28bn, 23% up on last year, with most of the increase coming from substantially higher income and profits tax and receipts from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Last year's MTEF had projected a steep decline in Namibia's share of receipts from SACU; however, the new MTEF projects a 19% increase, which is in line with figures accompanying the South African budget, as even if a new revenue-sharing formula is agreed in 2011 the expected decrease in Namibia's share from the common revenue pool will not be felt until 2012. Assuming that the revenue projection proves to be broadly accurate, we forecast that the budget deficit will rise from an estimated 6.3% of GDP in 2010/11 to 8.4% of GDP in 2011/12.
The MTEF projects that the deficit will narrow to 5.2% of GDP in 2012/13, owing to a fractional decrease in expenditure (with current expenditure higher by 4% but development expenditure down by 24%) and a 14% increase in revenue resulting from a 35% increase in SACU receipts. We expect the increase in current expenditure in 2012/13 to be considerably higher than 4%, although the development budget will again be underspent. On the revenue side, we expect domestic tax revenue to grow by more than the 6% projected in the MTEF, although SACU revenue will begin to decline as the new revenue-sharing formula takes effect. We consequently forecast that the deficit will fall, albeit by less than projected in the MTEF, to 6.5% of GDP.
To cover the deficits, the government expects to increase its debt by more than 50% to N$27bn (US$3.8bn)-27% of GDP-in March 2012 and to 30% of GDP by March 2013. Around three-quarters of new debt will be raised on the domestic market.
The BoN held Namibia's repurchase (repo) rate at 6% at its February meeting, maintaining the 50-basis-point differential with South Africa's repo rate. As sharply higher crude oil prices will increase inflationary pressures, no further rate cuts are expected, and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) may begin to tighten monetary policy in the second half of 2011 or in 2012 as inflation in South Africa approaches the bank's 6% ceiling. The SARB's interest-rate changes are likely to be matched by the BoN.
International assumptions summary | ||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Real GDP growth | ||||
World | -0.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
US | -2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
EU27 | -4.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Exchange rates | ||||
¥:US$ | 93.7 | 87.9 | 81.8 | 81.0 |
US$:€ | 1.393 | 1.326 | 1.365 | 1.295 |
SDR:US$ | 0.646 | 0.652 | 0.637 | 0.648 |
Financial indicators | ||||
¥ 3-month money market rate | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.70 |
Commodity prices | ||||
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 61.9 | 79.6 | 101.0 | 85.0 |
Copper (US cents/lb) | 233.6 | 344.5 | 442.0 | 465.0 |
Zinc (US cents/lb) | 75.1 | 97.9 | 110.3 | 126.8 |
Uranium (US$/lb) | 46.7 | 48.3 | 70.0 | 80.0 |
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates. |
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We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 4.2% in 2011. Diamond output will increase modestly to 1.6m carats and uranium production will expand by 7% to around 5,650 tonnes-less than previously forecast owing to lower ore grades and extraction rates at the Rössing mine. Overall mining output should expand by 6%, as two copper mines, closed at the end of 2009, have resumed production and output of gold, zinc concentrates and fluorspar will increase. The 2010/11 wet season recorded above-average rainfall, but flood damage to crops and livestock in northern Namibia during March-April is likely to affect agricultural output. Despite improved stocks and landings, fishing output, which is largely exported, will again contract, although more modestly than in 2010, owing to weak demand in the main European markets. The commissioning of the Ohorongo cement plant in February and the planned doubling of capacity at the Tsumeb copper smelter will boost manufacturing growth to 6%. These projects, as well as government spending on infrastructure, will raise construction growth to 5%.
In 2012 real GDP growth will increase to 4.6%, provided that demand for minerals continues to grow and prices remain strong. Diamond output will increase only to 1.7m carats, but uranium production will increase by 10% to 6,400 tonnes, owing mainly to Langer Heinrich's full-year Stage 3 output. Copper production from the reopened mines will also increase, and a boost to manganese production is also planned. Without a significant rise in the total allowable catch, the fishing sector will record modest growth at best. Manufacturing growth will rise to 7.5% with the first full year's production by Ohorongo and the expanded Tsumeb smelter, along with higher output by diamond cutters. Construction sector growth will expand to 7% owing to heavy government spending on infrastructure and the likely start of construction at the Husab and Etango-and possibly Valencia-uranium mines. The nuclear emergency at Japan's Fukushima plant will not, we believe, affect China's nuclear power programme, which is driving world uranium demand. Tertiary-sector growth will also remain strong, as high levels of public spending will boost growth in the government sector.
Average consumer price inflation, which nearly halved in 2010 to 4.5%, is forecast to rise in 2011, owing mainly to higher fuel prices. Stronger domestic demand, coupled with higher inflation in South Africa (the main source of most of Namibia's consumer goods), further increases in electricity tariffs (both domestic and South African) and historically low interest rates, will push up annual average inflation to 5%. Inflation will increase to 5.3% in 2012 under the impact of stronger economic growth and higher electricity prices.
The South African rand, to which the Namibia dollar is fixed at parity, has undergone considerable volatility in the past few months. Having strengthened to R6.6:US$1 in early January, its strongest rate since November 2007, it fell to R7.3:US$1 in mid-February as political events in Tunisia and Egypt eroded investors' confidence in emerging markets; it has rallied since then, reaching R6.8:US$1 at the beginning of April. We expect the rand to appreciate fractionally, to an average of R7.3:US$1 in 2011, before declining in 2012 to R8.2:US$1 owing to South Africa's relatively high inflation and large current-account deficit.
The current account will return to deficit in 2011 as the trade deficit widens. Import growth will accelerate to 11% owing to heavy demand for capital and intermediate goods for investment projects. Exports will increase by 10%-slower than previously forecast owing to a more modest increase in uranium exports. The surplus on the services account will widen as higher services imports for development projects will be more than offset by increased tourist arrivals and spending, but higher profit remittances (mostly by mining companies) will widen the income account deficit. The current transfers surplus will remain at the record level seen in 2010, SACU receipts not yet having begun their long-anticipated decline due to adjustments in the revenue-sharing formula. Overall, the current account is forecast to decline from rough balance in 2010 to a deficit of just under 1% of GDP in 2011.
In 2012 export growth will accelerate to 13%. The first full year of expanded capacity at Langer Heinrich and the Tsumeb smelter will increase exports of uranium and blister copper, and cement exports from the Ohorongo plant should reach the planned 400,000 tonnes/year. Imports will grow by 16% in response to faster economic growth and demand for capital equipment for at least two new uranium mines and a second desalination plant. If it receives approval, the long-delayed Kudu gas-to-power project will increase equipment imports. Currency depreciation will favour growth in tourism, offset by increased freight costs, keeping the services deficit stable. Rising profit remittances by foreign investors will push the income account further into deficit. The current transfers surplus will drop back as receipts from SACU fall. The larger deficits on the trade and income accounts and the narrower transfers surplus will push the current-account deficit to 4.1% of GDP.
Forecast summary | ||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
2009a | 2010a | 2011b | 2012b | |
Real GDP growth | -0.7 | 4.8c | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Gross agricultural production growth | -4.1 | -0.2c | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 8.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 7.0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 6.6 |
Lending rate (av) | 11.1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.5 |
Government balance (% of GDP)d | -1.1 | -6.3c | -8.4 | -6.5 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ m) | 3,535 | 4,042 | 4,483 | 5,066 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ m) | -4,519 | -4,880 | -5,393 | -6,256 |
Current-account balance (US$ m) | -161 | 11 | -113 | -571 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -1.7 | 0.1c | -0.8 | -4.1 |
External debt (year-end; US$ m) | 2,038 | 2,888 | 3,060 | 3,163 |
Exchange rate N$:US$ (av) | 8.42 | 7.32 | 7.30 | 8.20 |
Exchange rate N$:¥100 (av) | 8.99 | 8.32 | 8.93 | 10.12 |
Exchange rate N$:€ (end-period) | 10.55 | 8.94 | 10.30 | 10.79 |
Exchange rate N$:SDR (end-period) | 11.61 | 10.33 | 12.10 | 13.03 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimate. d Fiscal years beginning April 1st. |
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There have been no significant domestic political developments during the period under review. The nine opposition parties have yet to confirm their intention to appeal to the Supreme Court over the dismissal in mid-February by the High Court in Windhoek of their application to have the November 2009 National Assembly election, or the official results, declared null and void. Most attention has focused on the parliamentary scrutiny of the budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March) presented on March 9th (April 2011, Economic policy) and the budgets of individual ministries. The defence budget (8% of total expenditure) has caused most controversy, the minister of defence, Charles Namoloh, trying partly to justify the N$3.1bn (US$410m) allocation to his ministry on the grounds of the need to guard against any repercussions of the unrest currently affecting North Africa.
Mr Namoloh told parliament on April 15th that Namibians should be "prepared to sacrifice resources for defence", as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states were "not immune to similar turbulences as seen in North Africa". A strong Namibian Defence Force (NDF) was needed to guarantee Namibia's continued "peace and stability", Mr Namoloh added. The ministry's N$2.6bn operational budget includes acquiring and upgrading "appropriate weapons systems" for the NDF, along with the purchase of aircraft for the air force and vessels for the navy (both are wings of the NDF). The N$484m (US$64m) capital allocation is to be used for the research and development of armaments and military equipment, along with the construction of new NDF bases at Gobabis, Karibib, Keetmanshoop, Oluno and Walvis Bay. The Namibian newspaper commented that, although Mr Namoloh was right in saying that popular unrest in SADC was possible, he was wrong to think that the role of the military was to quell internal unrest.
On a related theme, the international relations secretary of the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), Libolly Haufiku, has accused the president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, and other leaders of the ruling party, the South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), that have criticised NATO air strikes against the armed forces of the Libyan leader, Muammar Qadhafi, of hypocrisy. Speaking at Independence Day celebrations in Otjiwarongo on March 21st. Mr Pohamba had condemned "any foreign invasion in the internal affairs of any African state". At a press conference on April 12th about Libya and other African conflicts, Mr Haufiku said that the same UN Security Council that had backed UN Resolution 1973, establishing a no-fly zone over Libya, had supported Namibia's freedom struggle and drafted UN Resolution 435 of 1978, which eventually brought Namibia to independence. Mr Haufiku called on the government actively to support Resolution 1973, since the constitution requires Namibia to support all international agreements and rulings.
A public-sector pay increase of around 7% announced by the minister of finance, Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila, on April 12th will raise the government's wage bill in fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March) to N$11.1bn and increase the fiscal deficit. In a surprise announcement to parliament Mrs Kuugongelwa-Amadhila said that the budget would be amended during the committee stage of the appropriation bill to accommodate increases totalling N$844m. She added that the cabinet had approved the pay increases and that the government was negotiating with workers' representatives. The extra spending will drive up government debt and, local economists have warned, its inflationary effect may cause the Bank of Namibia (BoN, the central bank) to raise its repurchase (repo) rate sooner than it might otherwise have done.
Daniel Motinga, the chief economist of First National Bank Namibia, said that this major addition to expenditure damaged the budget's credibility and that it was difficult to believe that it was "an afterthought". Robin Sherbourne, of Old Mutual Namibia, described it as "an extraordinary way of budgeting", which highlighted the need for better planning to synchronise civil service pay negotiations with the budget cycle. It appears that the government was aware of trade union demands for a pay increase well in advance of the budget. Basilius Haingura, the general secretary of the Namibian National Teachers' Union, said that his union had submitted its pay proposals to the government at the end of 2010 and had been "very surprised" not to see them included in the budget.
Before the finance minister's announcement the government had seemed well on track with arrangements to finance its expected N$10.1bn borrowing requirement for 2011/12, which will also now go up. Its original financing plan, set out in the budget (April 2011, Economic policy), was amended in early April to widen the range of domestic borrowing instruments and substantially increase foreign borrowing. The debt to be raised as short-term Treasury bills and internal registered stock (IRS; longer-dated bonds) has been cut by one-third from N$9.3bn to N$6.2bn, with planned IRS issues scaled back by almost half. IJG Securities, Namibia's leading firm of stockbrokers, commented that the government had recognised that its initial plan did not "properly consider market dynamics", which became clear only after consultations with local financial institutions involved in funding government debt.
The revised borrowing plan, jointly drafted by the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, has been broadly welcomed by local investors. IJG had previously warned that the large amounts to be raised through IRS issues could lead to higher borrowing costs and a crowding-out effect on domestic financial markets. Out of total domestic borrowing of N$7.3bn, the biggest share (47%) will now be raised via T-bills, and N$1.1bn through three new bond types: inflation-linked bonds, retail bonds and bonds listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The inflation-linked bonds are targeted at institutional investors, but the government hopes that the retail bonds will attract savings by individual investors. Foreign borrowing will more than treble to N$2.7bn; as well as foreign loans, N$2bn will be raised by Namibia's first-ever Eurobond issues.
Financing the budget deficit | |||
(N$ m unless otherwise indicated) | |||
Budget proposal | Revised proposal | % change | |
Domestic | 9,345 | 7,345 | -21.4 |
Treasury bill net issues | 3,738 | 3,425 | -8.4 |
IRS net issues | 5,607 | 2,820 | -49.7 |
Inflation-linked bonds | 0 | 200 | – |
Retail bonds | 0 | 100 | – |
JSE-linked bonds | 0 | 800 | – |
Foreign | 746 | 2,746 | 268.1 |
Foreign loans | 746 | 746 | 0.0 |
Eurobonds | 0 | 2,000 | – |
Total | 10,091 | 10,091 | 0.0 |
Sources: Bank of Namibia; Ministry of Finance; IJG Securities. |
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A combination of lower ore grade and reduced extraction rates at the Rössing mine and abnormally high rainfall at the Langer Heinrich mine cut Namibia's uranium output to 923 tonnes in January-March 2011, 29% down on a year earlier. Rio Tinto, which owns a 69% equity interest in Rössing, has lowered its 2011 production forecast and expects production of some 3,100 tonnes this year, compared with 3,600 tonnes in 2010. Rainfall was ten times the annual average in the normally arid central Namib area in the first quarter of 2011, which lowered the average grade at Langer Heinrich. However, commissioning of the Stage 3 expansion project at Langer Heinrich, which will raise output by 40% to 2,360 tonnes by the second half of 2011, has begun. This should partly offset lower production at Rössing.
Uranium output, Jan-Mar | |||
(tonnes U3O8) | |||
2010 | 2011 | % change | |
Rössing | 884 | 562 | -36.4 |
Langer Heinrich | 421 | 361 | -14.3 |
Total | 1,305 | 923 | -29.3 |
Sources: Rio Tinto, First quarter 2011 operations review; Paladin Energy, Quarterly activities report for period ending March 31st 2011. |
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The definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the Husab uranium project was published by Australia's Extract Resources on April 5th. It sets out a "base case mine plan" for an open-pit mining operation and conventional acid leach processing plant producing 15m lb (6,800 tonnes) of uranium oxide per year at an estimated capital cost of just under US$1.7bn (April 2011, Economic performance). Ore would be extracted from two open pits with an initial 16-year mine life; the DFS posits a mineral reserve of 205m tonnes of ore with an average grade of 0.05%, equivalent to 225m lb (102,000 tonnes) of contained uranium. Extract appears to be confident of raising the required funding for a stand-alone development through a mix of equity and debt. However, it is also continuing negotiations with Rio Tinto over a possible joint development strategy for Husab and Rössing, which would presumably reduce Extract's own funding requirements.
According to the chairman of Extract, Steve Galloway, a Namibian national, the company wants to raise as much funding as possible from banks and other financial institutions in Namibia. Mine commissioning is planned for early 2014, assuming a 33-month construction period from the decision to proceed, which is expected as soon as the government grants a mining licence. The share price of both Extract and London-listed Kalahari Minerals, which owns a 43% equity interest, fell after an earthquake in mid-March damaged Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, but China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC) is still expected to make a formal offer of £2.90 (US$4.64) per share for Kalahari in early May (April 2011, Economic performance).
Higher oil prices have led to an intensification of oil exploration, mainly in the Namibe, Walvis and Orange sedimentary basins (off northern, central and southern Namibia respectively). Smaller oil firms currently predominate, but the minister of mines and energy, Isak Katali, expects majors to return to Namibia if wells due to be drilled in 2011-12 lead to commercial discoveries.
Chariot Oil and Gas, listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM), raised £90m through a share placement in March and intends to drill one well in the final quarter of 2011 and a second in the first quarter of 2012. It holds mainly majority stakes in eight Namibian blocks via its wholly owned subsidiary, Enigma Petroleum-two each in Namibe and Orange, and four in Walvis Bay. Brazil's Petrobras has a 50% farm-out interest in one southern block, 2174A (June 2009, Economic performance), where the Nimrod prospect contains an estimated gross unrisked mean prospective resource of 3.7bn barrels of oil. Chariot recently increased its prospective resource estimate for the two Namibe blocks by 36% to 2.6bn barrels, raising the total for all its Namibian blocks to 13.9bn barrels (10.4bn is attributable to Chariot).
Another AIM-listed firm, Tower Resources, raised £4.3m in an oversubscribed share placement in February and plans to drill its first Namibian well by the end of 2011. Tower's wholly owned subsidiary, Neptune Petroleum (Namibia), has a 15% interest in Licence 0010, covering three Namibe blocks, where Arcadia Petroleum, a British-based global oil trading private firm (85% farmed out in 2007) is operator. The Alpha, Delta and Gamma structures there are estimated to contain recoverable reserves of 10bn barrels.
Despite a smaller foreign trade deficit in 2010, the current-account surplus narrowed by over 90% to just N$80m, owing mainly to a substantial investment income outflow and lower current transfer receipts. According to preliminary figures published by the central bank in its latest Annual Report, exports rose by 13% to N$29.6bn; mineral exports increased by 21%, and their share of exports rose to 44% (41% in 2009), owing chiefly to a 33% increase in diamond exports. With imports down by 2.5% at N$35.7bn, the foreign trade deficit fell by 41% in local currency terms and by 32% in US-dollar terms, reflecting the appreciation of the Namibia dollar last year.
The surplus on the services account was only slightly lower than in 2009, owing mainly to a 5% fall in tourism receipts to N$3.2bn. The income account, which went into surplus in 2009, returned to deficit last year-one of N$3.4bn-owing to a heavy fall in returns on investments abroad and a doubling, to N$4.9bn, of the profits repatriated by foreign direct investors. A 15% reduction in the surplus on current transfers was due to a fall in receipts from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), which declined by 20% to N$6.9bn.
Current account | |||
(N$ m unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2009 | 2010a | % change | |
Exports fob | 26,262 | 29,567 | 12.6 |
Minerals | 10,715 | 12,921 | 20.6 |
Diamonds | 4,570 | 6,061 | 32.6 |
Uranium | 4,675 | 5,056 | 8.1 |
Food & live animals | 3,151 | 3,607 | 14.5 |
Manufactured productsb | 6,224 | 6,150 | -1.2 |
Others | 6,172 | 6,889 | 11.6 |
Imports | -36,614 | -35,697 | -2.5 |
Petroleum products | -4,228 | -2,702 | -36.1 |
Trade balance | -10,353 | -6,131 | -40.8 |
US$ m | -1,229 | -838 | -31.5 |
Services (net) | 601 | 589 | -2.0 |
Income (net) | 429 | -3,390 | – |
Current transfers (net)c | 10,614 | 9,013 | -15.1 |
Current-account balance | 1,291 | 80 | -93.8 |
US$ m | 153 | 11 | -92.8 |
a Provisional. b Includes refined zinc, smelted copper, cut diamonds, processed meat and fish, goods from export processing zone (EPZ) companies. c Mainly receipts from the Southern African Customs Union. | |||
Source: Bank of Namibia, Annual Report 2010. |
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Namibia's overall balance of payments recorded a US$517m deficit last year, compared with a US$129m surplus in 2009, reflecting the much smaller current-account surplus and a larger deficit on the capital and financial account, which has traditionally been in deficit. Net foreign direct investment inflows rose by 42% to a record N$6.3bn, owing to the trebling of reinvested earnings to N$4bn, whereas portfolio investment net outflows rose by 13% to N$5.6bn. These largely comprise purchases by Namibian pension funds and insurers of South African assets. Of the remaining components of the financial account, other long-term investment turned in a small deficit, compared with a substantial surplus in 2009, that being largely due to the allocation of new special drawing rights (SDRs) by the IMF. Other short-term investment showed a reduced deficit, mainly owing to higher drawings on investment assets, particularly by mining companies.
Balance of payments | |||
(N$ m unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2009 | 2010 | % change | |
Current account balance | 1,291 | 80 | -93.8 |
Capital transfers (net) | 558 | 558 | 0.0 |
Direct investment (net) | 4,398 | 6,249 | 42.1 |
Portfolio investment (net) | -4,984 | -5,631 | 13.0 |
Other investment, long-term (net) | 2,249 | -117 | – |
Other investment, short-term (net) | -3,793 | -3,114 | -17.9 |
Capital & financial account balance | -1,571 | -2,055 | 30.8 |
Net errors & omissions | 1,368 | -1,810 | – |
Overall balance | 1,088 | -3,785 | – |
US$ m | 129 | -517 | – |
Source: Bank of Namibia, Annual Report 2010. |
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2006a | 2007a | 2008a | 2009a | 2010b | 2011c | 2012c | |
GDP | |||||||
Nominal GDP (US$ m) | 7,987 | 8,809 | 8,962 | 9,280 | 12,883 | 14,178 | 13,964 |
Nominal GDP (N$ m) | 54,028 | 62,080 | 74,016 | 78,169 | 94,240 | 103,502 | 114,501 |
Real GDP growth (%) | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Expenditure on GDP (% real change) | |||||||
Private consumption | 8.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
Government consumption | 11.0 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
Gross fixed investment | 29.8 | 12.1 | 13.1 | -1.6 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
Exports of goods & services | 15.3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | -14.9 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 10.6 |
Imports of goods & services | 16.3 | 31.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 7.3 |
Origin of GDP (% real change) | |||||||
Agriculture | -0.7 | -9.3 | 0.4 | -4.1 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Industry | 14.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | -11.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
Services | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
Population and income | |||||||
Population (m) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
GDP per head (US$ at PPP) | 5,839 | 6,213 | 6,495 | 6,388 | 6,635 | 6,891 | 7,268 |
Fiscal indicators (% of GDP)d | |||||||
Public-sector revenue | 36.4 | 31.8 | 31.3 | 30.0 | 25.5 | 26.4 | 28.6 |
Public-sector expenditure | 31.7 | 26.7 | 29.2 | 31.1 | 31.8 | 34.7 | 35.1 |
Public-sector balance | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | -1.1 | -6.3 | -8.4 | -6.5 |
Net public debt | 28.3 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 14.8 | 20.1 | 27.4 | 30.3 |
Prices and financial indicators | |||||||
Exchange rate N$:US$ (end-period) | 7.04 | 6.86 | 9.30 | 7.36 | 6.59a | 7.80 | 8.50 |
Exchange rate N$:€ (end-period) | 9.29 | 10.02 | 12.93 | 10.55 | 8.94a | 10.30 | 10.79 |
Consumer prices (end-period; %) | 6.0 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.1a | 4.4 | 6.6 |
Stock of money M1 (% change) | 46.3 | 7.0 | 26.8 | 12.5 | 14.4a | 7.6b | 15.1 |
Stock of money M2 (% change) | 30.1 | 10.2 | 17.9 | 5.9 | 19.8a | 8.4b | 16.3 |
Lending interest rate (av; %) | 11.2 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 9.7a | 9.1 | 9.5 |
Current account (US$ m) | |||||||
Trade balance | 102 | -180 | -717 | -984 | -838a | -910 | -1,190 |
Goods: exports fob | 2,647 | 2,922 | 3,116 | 3,535 | 4,042a | 4,483 | 5,066 |
Goods: imports fob | -2,544 | -3,102 | -3,833 | -4,519 | -4,880a | -5,393 | -6,256 |
Services balance | 96 | 85 | -34 | -88 | 81a | 111 | 109 |
Income balance | -63 | -158 | -155 | -70 | -463a | -546 | -615 |
Current transfers balance | 880 | 946 | 950 | 980 | 1,232a | 1,232 | 1,125 |
Current-account balance | 1,016 | 693 | 45 | -161 | 11a | -113 | -571 |
External debt (US$ m) | |||||||
Debt stock | 1,820 | 1,798 | 1,761 | 2,038 | 2,888a | 3,060 | 3,163 |
Debt service paid | 399 | 342 | 397 | 400 | 439 | 445 | 455 |
Principal repayments | 391 | 334 | 390 | 388 | 423 | 425 | 432 |
Interest | 8 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
International reserves (US$ m) | |||||||
Total international reserves | 450 | 896 | 1,293 | 2,051 | 1,699a | 1,542 | 1,583 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Fiscal years starting in April. | |||||||
Sources: Bank of Namibia; Central Bureau of Statistics; IMF, International Financial Statistics. |
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2009 | 2010 | |||||||
1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | 1 Qtr | 2 Qtr | 3 Qtr | 4 Qtr | |
Prices | ||||||||
Consumer prices (Dec 2001=100) | 161.6 | 164.2 | 167.2 | 168.4 | 171.4 | 171.9 | 173.8 | 173.9 |
Consumer prices (% change, year on year) | 11.5 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.2 |
Financial indicators | ||||||||
Exchange rate N$:US$ (av)a | 9.946 | 8.457 | 7.796 | 7.494 | 7.512 | 7.544 | 7.306 | 6.899 |
Exchange rate N$:US$ (end-period)a | 9.517 | 7.730 | 7.408 | 7.361 | 7.330 | 7.625 | 6.951 | 6.585 |
Bank of Namibia overdraft rate (end-period; %) | 9.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
Deposit rate (av; %) | 8.1 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
Govt bond yield rate (av; %) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Lending rate (av; %) | 13.1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.4 |
Prime rate (av; %) | 14.1 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.3 |
Treasury bill rate (av; %) | 9.9 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 5.8 |
M1 (end-period; N$ m) | 19,943 | 20,280 | 19,610 | 21,020 | 22,961 | 21,061 | 22,870 | 24,054 |
M1 (% change, year on year) | 14.7 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 12.5 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 16.6 | 14.4 |
M2 (end-period; N$ m) | 30,174 | 30,367 | 29,479 | 31,091 | 33,214 | 31,582 | 33,709 | 34,483 |
M2 (% change, year on year) | 11.2 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
IJG/IPPR Business Climate Index (Jan 2006=100) | 118.0 | 116.9 | 121.1 | 121.8 | 122.5 | 120.4 | 124.4 | 114.1 |
IJG/IPPR BCI (% change, year on year) | -1.1 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | -6.3 |
Foreign trade & reserves | ||||||||
Goods exports fob ( N$ m) | 6,897 | 5,552 | 6,577 | 7,236 | 6,996 | 6,911 | 7,609 | n/a |
Diamonds | 508 | 982 | 2,062 | 1,006 | 1,025 | 1,163 | 1,163 | n/a |
Other minerals | 1,976 | 310 | 396 | 351 | 1,956 | 2,060 | 2,060 | n/a |
Food & live animals | 844 | 658 | 764 | 878 | 746 | 869 | 869 | n/a |
Manufactures | 1,740 | 1,369 | 1,684 | 1,427 | 1,703 | 1,550 | 1,550 | n/a |
Goods imports fob (N$ m) | -8,799 | -8,572 | -9,849 | -9,394 | -8,647 | -7,996 | -9,716 | n/a |
Trade balance (N$ m) | -1,902 | -3,020 | -3,272 | -2,158 | -1,651 | -1,085 | -2,107 | n/a |
Services balance (N$ m) | -115 | 230 | 401 | -25 | -189 | 8 | 92 | n/a |
Income balance (N$ m) | -313 | 84 | 802 | -110 | -503 | -608 | -519 | n/a |
Transfers balance (N$ m) | 2,665 | 2,673 | 2,655 | 2,621 | 2,618 | 1,804 | 2,651 | n/a |
Current-account balance (N$ m) | 281 | -46 | 1,254 | 442 | 358 | 119 | 117 | n/a |
Reserves excl gold (end-period; US$ m) | 1,437 | 1,640 | 2,164 | 2,051 | 1,932 | 1,803 | 1,833 | 1,696 |
a The Namibia dollar (N$) is fixed at parity with the South African rand. | ||||||||
Sources: Bank of Namibia, Quarterly Bulletin; IMF, International Financial Statistics; Irwin, Jacobs, Greene/Institute for Public Policy Research, Windhoek; US Federal Reserve. |
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Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
Exchange rate N$:US$ (av) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 9.908 | 9.977 | 9.954 | 8.964 | 8.374 | 8.033 | 7.949 | 7.941 | 7.503 | 7.487 | 7.509 | 7.485 |
2010 | 7.463 | 7.668 | 7.406 | 7.344 | 7.651 | 7.636 | 7.521 | 7.288 | 7.110 | 6.911 | 6.975 | 6.824 |
2011 | 6.924 | 7.184 | 6.898 | 6.721 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Exchange rate N$:US$ (end-period) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 10.200 | 10.035 | 9.517 | 8.440 | 8.028 | 7.730 | 7.813 | 7.778 | 7.408 | 7.770 | 7.377 | 7.361 |
2010 | 7.580 | 7.640 | 7.330 | 7.352 | 7.552 | 7.625 | 7.292 | 7.373 | 6.951 | 6.976 | 7.086 | 6.670 |
2011 | 7.178 | 6.954 | 6.768 | 6.581 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
M1 (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 22.2 | 8.0 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
2010 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 15.1 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 13.5 | 16.6 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 14.4 |
2011 | 7.1 | 9.1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
M2 (% change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 15.4 | 5.9 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 5.9 |
2010 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 10.9 |
2011 | 5.4 | 7.4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Deposit rate (av; %) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
2010 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
2011 | 4.3 | 4.1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Lending rate (end-period; %) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 13.0 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.8 |
2010 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 9.1 |
2011 | 8.7 | 8.9 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Consumer prices (av; % change, year on year) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
2010 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
2011 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Foreign reserves excl gold (US$ m) | ||||||||||||
2009 | 1,569 | 1,377 | 1,437 | 1,615 | 1,697 | 1,640 | 1,724 | 1,901 | 2,164 | 2,322 | 2,122 | 2,051 |
2010 | 2,160 | 2,064 | 1,932 | 2,035 | 1,857 | 1,803 | 1,818 | 1,825 | 1,833 | 1,887 | 1,655 | 1,696 |
2011 | 1,834 | 1,684 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; Haver Analytics; Bank of Namibia; US Federal Reserve. |
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Please see graphic below
Please see graphic below
Please see graphic below
Land area
824,269 sq km
Population
2.17m (mid-2009 IMF estimate)
Main towns
Population ('000; 2010 World Gazetteer estimates)
Windhoek (capital): 315.9
Rundu: 81.5
Walvis Bay: 67.2
Oshakati: 39.7
Swakopmund: 34.3
Grootfontein: 29.0
Katima Mulilo: 27.9
Climate
Semi-arid and subtropical
Weather in Windhoek (altitude 1,833 metres)
Hottest months, January and February, 17-39°C (daily minimum and maximum); coldest months, June and July, 6-20°C; driest month, July, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, January, 350 mm average rainfall
Languages
English (official), Oshivambo (various dialects), Nama-Damara, Afrikaans, Herero, Rukavango, Lozi, German, Tswana and several Bushman (San) dialects
Measures
Metric system
Fiscal year
April 1st-March 31st
Currency
Namibia dollar (N$) = 100 cents; introduced in September 1993, pegged at parity with the South African rand
Time
2 hours ahead of GMT
Public holidays
January 1st, March 21st (Independence Day), Good Friday, Easter Monday, May 1st (Workers' Day), May 4th (Cassinga Day), Ascension Day, May 25th (Africa Day), August 26th (Heroes' Day), December 10th (Human Rights Day), December 25th and 26th (Christmas Day and Family Day)
Official name
Republic of Namibia
Form of state
Unitary republic
Legal system
Based on the constitution of 1990 and Roman-Dutch law
National legislature
Bicameral; National Assembly, with 72 members elected by universal suffrage and serving a five-year term, and up to six non-voting members appointed by the president; National Council, with limited powers of review and 26 members, two of whom are nominated by each of the country's 13 regional councils, serving a six-year term
National elections
November 2009 (legislative and presidential); next elections due in November 2014
Head of state
Hifikepunye Pohamba, elected president by universal suffrage in November 2009
National government
President and his appointed cabinet; reshuffled in March 2010
Main political parties
South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), the ruling party (54 of the elected seats in the National Assembly); Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP; 8 seats); Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA; 2 seats); National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO; 2 seats); United Democratic Front (UDF; 2 seats); Congress of Democrats (CoD; 1 seat); Republican Party (RP; 1 seat); All People's Party (APP; 1 seat); South West Africa National Union (SWANU; 1 seat); Monitor Action Group (MAG)
Prime minister: Nahas Angula
Deputy prime minister: Marco Hausiku
Cabinet ministers
Agriculture, water & forestry: John Mutorwa
Defence: Charles Namoloh
Education: Abraham Iyambo
Environment & tourism: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah
Finance: Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila
Fisheries & marine resources: Bernard Esau
Foreign affairs: Utoni Nujoma
Gender equality & child welfare: Doreen Sioka
Health & social services: Richard Kamwi
Home affairs & immigration: Rosalia Nghidinwa
Information & communication technology: Joel Kaapanda
Justice: Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana
Labour & social welfare: Immanuel Ngatjizeko
Lands & resettlement: Alpheus Naruseb
Mines & energy: Isak Katali
National Planning Commission: Tom Alweendo
Presidential affairs & attorney-general: Albert Kawana
Regional & local government, housing & rural development: Jerry Ekandjo
Safety & security: Nangolo Mbumba
Speaker of parliament: Theo-Ben Gurirab
Trade & industry: Hage Geingob
Veterans' affairs: Nickey Iyambo
Works & transport: Erkki Nghimtina
Youth, national service, sport & culture: Kazenambo Kazenambo
Governor of the central bank
Ipumbu Shiimi